Going down the up escalator

Posted by Graham Thompson — 9 January 2013 at 2:53pm - Comments
All rights reserved. Credit: © Greenpeace

The Met Office have changed their decadal forecast for the next four years from a predicted 0.54 degree rise to a 0.43 degree rise, measured relative to the 1971-2000 average. This doesn’t sound all that exciting, even to real climate geeks like us, but then Lord Lawson’s climate denial outfit, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, got hold of the story and turned it into ‘Global Warming at a standstill’ in the Telegraph and similarly dramatic variations on the BBC’s Today programme and elsewhere.

This new climate controversy is actually the same old controversy described here, here and here and debunked here, here and here

Or, if you’re not interested in reading long explanations of data manipulation, here’s the gist:

 

Basically, you can’t see a long-term trend by looking at the short term. When you’re measuring changes over brief stretches of time, you can find periods where the Dow Jones seems to show the collapse of capitalism, the climate appears to be cooling, or QPR look likely to win the Premiership. But take a step back, and things look very different.

So no, sadly global warming has neither stopped nor paused, when you look at climatic trends rather than weather patterns.

But the ‘new’ version of this old chestnut did contain one interesting detail which foxed us for a while. The news coverage included a claim that 1998 was the ‘the warmest year in the Met Office Hadley Centre’s 160-year record’, when the Hadley Centre’s temperature record, HadCRUT4, shows 2010 as the hottest year, with 2005 in second place and 1998 third. This is in line with the two other global temperature datasets, GISS (produced by NASA) and NCDC (the US’s National Climatic Data Center), and, not altogether surprisingly, with the World Meteorological Organisation’s  figures, which are produced from combining those three datasets.

That seemed like a rather simple thing to get wrong, and so we were just about to loudly decry the appallingly low standards of modern science journalism when we discovered the source of the error.

The 1998 claim was lifted from the Met Office’s webpage announcing their new decadal forecasts -

“The warmest year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record in 1998, with a temperature of 0.40°C above long-term average.” (all errors in the original)

The Met Office appear to have used HadCRUT3, an earlier, less comprehensive version of their dataset, which had 1998 as the warmest year (there’s only a few hundredths of a degree between the top three).

So the Met Office are now releasing figures that contradict the figures produced by the Met Office.

Hopefully the Hadley Centre scientists who collated HadCRUT4 will have a word with the Met Office PR department and get them to use the correct data. That way, there’d be a slightly improved chance of the media using the correct data too.

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Hello Eulalia,

Here are a couple I like -

http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/newsdesk (yes, I would say that)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ (explains climate issues simply, and in full detail)

RealClimate, Grist and ClimateProgress are also worth a look.

 

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Surely its obvious that global warming hasn't stopped.  You only have to look at the facts in front of your eyes; the extreme weather, the fires in Australia, polar bears on the verge of extinction, glaciers to be completely melted within a few decades.

It's very unfortunate that the Met Office have revised downwards their forecast as this sends out entirely the wrong message.  

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NEWS MANIPULATED ELECTIONS HANDLING SATELITAL MANIPULATION ELECTIONS- Capriles Radonski - TELEPHONE venezuela 0414-422-91-69 / 0414-585-00-44 / 0414-406-68-52 CALL TO SO YOU HAVE TESTED ALL THE TESTS.

Two satellites and the island of Orchila

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This is absurd logic Regardless if Global Warming exists or not, as an issue it is far too uncertain given the differences in opinion by best scientists in the world.  It is not the Issue right now.  You cant STOP ARTIC melting until there is a shoot down policy on all planes  who load toxic weapons into the air and anyone helping or aiding them participating in geo engineering crimes pumping out weather creating droughts floods.  Proven by the lines in the sky and showing up on television over and over.  These terrorists appear to have threatened all media and forced them not to talk, as they are impossible to miss or question, which means Green peace should be shouting from the roof tops, no? This activity is daily over prolonged period and immediately follows with extreme weather within weeks.  Blatantly obvious and backed up academic papers that this is what it does interfer with the climate and we all know the results especially in Austrialia and South England US Yet Green Peace has no information on this form of athmospheric terrorism.  Yet with all the military budgets noone has bothered to taken these element out for crimes against humanity.  Considering the weather has only got extreme since there has been 1000's of these terrorists seen in the skies.  Any day 24 hours a day evidence is in the sky so proof is not obscure. If green peace want to be respected start finding out who these people are print there photos and name them so people can find them and hand them over to the authorities and see them charged and face the death penalty for their act.

Time for green peace to go back to roots.  Global Warming is Climate Interference by planes set to interfere.  But then as experts this you must alread know.  Silence is not Golden it is a Crime and all and anyone participating in this no matter how small must pay and be brought to justice. Including the arguers as this is not a discussion matter by its silence it is Athmospheric Terrorism. 

Hello Donald,

So, Global Warming is 'far too uncertain' whilst the chem trail conspiracy is 'proven'.

Ooookay.

'These terrorists appear to have threatened all media and forced them not to talk'.

This is how you tell the difference between a hypothesis and a conspiracy theory, Donald.

In a hypothesis, you want as much evidence as possible to support your case. In a conspiracy theory, a complete lack of evidence to support your case actually IS evidence - of a huge and sinister cover-up!

So, as part of our ongoing mission to control your mind, mwa ha ha ha, try this little brain-teaser.

The first forecast of how our CO2 emissions would warm the global climate was made by the Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

Seven years before the aeroplane was invented.

 

 

 

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The news coverage included a claim that 1998 was the ‘the warmest year
in the Met Office Hadley Centre’s 160-year record’, when the Hadley
Centre’s temperature record, HadCRUT4, shows 2010 as the hottest year,
with 2005 in second place and 1998 third Yves Beaunesne

So no, sadly global warming has neither stopped nor paused, when you look at climatic trends rather than weather patterns. 000-667 // 000-957

Or, if you’re not interested in reading long explanations of data manipulation, here’s the gist: 650-987 || 70-247

The Met Office have changed their decadal forecast for the next four years from a predicted 70-331 || 70-332

This doesn’t sound all that exciting, even to real climate geeks like us, but then Lord Lawson’s climate denial outfit 70-412 || 70-413

But take a step back, and things look very different. 70-414 || 70-462

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