During the cold war, the United States used the defcon alert system to reflect the threat condition of an iminnent nuclear strike. Defcon 5 was the least severe with defcon1 signaling the possibility of all out nuclear war.
Given the recent coverage of the condition of the arctic sea ice and the implications for climate change - if a similar system existed for the climate change threat then we would be surely looking at 'arccom' 4 or even 3. Because climate change is no longer a theory or an 'inconvenient truth' its a genuine threat. And it seems US national security appears to be coming to that conclusion also as reported by the Guardian.
Last year recorded the lowest Arctic minimum since the last ice age and along with the receeding ice there are clear alterations in observable weather patterns. One the most notable changes has been the deviation of the jet stream, which scientists think are responsble for extreme weather events such as the recent cold snaps and even the protected period of hot weather here in the UK.
But there is another phenomonon which has been developing. With a huge swath of open water where there used to be ice, the conditions have allowed the formation of weather systems to take place. Arctic News has reported on the formation of a huge cyclone over the Arctic. It is predicted that this system will break up the remaining sea ice, which could leave it vulnerable to accelarated melting. Last year in August 'a massive cyclone formed over the Arctic Ocean and destroyed 800,000 square km of ice in about a week'.
But apart from the rapid ice melt another more serious development is taking place which takes the climate 'emergency' to an entirly new level. Its the release of frozen methane from permafrost and the ocean floor. As the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) warns 'The most catastrophically dangerous methane source is Arctic sea floor methane hydrate. This is frozen solid methane gas under pressure in sea floor sediments. The largest source of Arctic methane hydrate is the East Siberian Arctic shelf (ESAS) , the largest continental shelf in the world. Methane is now venting to the atmosphere from under the shelf. All the evidence indicates that an abrupt massive release of methane gas from Arctic hydrates could happen which most likely would be catastrophe to the global climate and our planet'.
The six activists who recently climbed the Shard in London to draw attention to the plight of the Arctic, marks the latest attempt by Greenpeace to 'Save the Arctic'. They and everyone else knows that time is running out fast. The writing - as it were - is etched on the massive walls of sea ice that remain in the Arctic. But those walls are melting before the message can be recast. This is one 'cold war' we might end up losing unless we act fast.
Update
This issue has just exploded into the news today in the wake of a paper just published in nature that predicts the release of a 50 Gigatonne (Gt) methane pulse from thawing Arctic permafrost could destabilise the climate system and trigger costs as high as the value of the entire world's GDP. Two reports in the Guardian cover the issue here and here.
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