There's a mildly amusing article in today's Independent claiming that David Cameron is "facing a major rebellion from within his own party" over the possibility that Trident replacement may be delayed, and that "it may even be a resigning issue for Liam Fox, Defence Secretary".
The main source quoted in the article is Julian Lewis, a Conservative MP on the right wing fringe of the party who for many years has been one of the biggest cheer-leaders for nuclear weapons in Parliament.
However, Mr Lewis is making the common mistake of assuming that his own views are shared by the majority of his colleagues. This is not so. My own Conservative MP - who is far from being on the left of the party - advises me that Trident replacement simply isn't a concern for most Conservative MPs, as it's not an issue on which they will gain or lose votes. Most Conservative MPs, he told me, would prefered to have seen Trident included in the Defence Review so that a proper analysis of its costs and benefits could have been conducted.
Of course, it was Liam Fox and the Conservative right who insisted on omitting Trident from the Defence Review, leading to the much publicised clash with the Treasury over who will pay for its replacement. This in turn led to a humiliating climbdown when the Treasury said that the Ministry of Defence must find the money from within its own budget - leading to the uncertainty over the replacement programme which has given Mr Lewis the jitters.
If push comes to shove most Conservative MPs - especially the new intake - can be expected to show their traditional loyalty to the Party and follow the Conservative whip on any vote on Trident.
And as for Liam Fox resigning - would the Tory right really be so stupid as to encourage their own man in the Ministry of Defence to stand down? Liam Fox may not have handled the Trident replacement issue particularly adeptly, but no-one doubts that he wants the project to go ahead at full speed. If Liam Fox steps down, the odds are that whoever replaces him will be far more sceptical about the need for new nuclear weapons and far less likely to pay for them.
Of course, there's also a separate theory that the government is fully committed to replacing Trident, and that all the current leaks and rumours are designed to keep the Lib Dem rank and file quiet at their conference next week ...
Comments