Analysis
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Greenpeace

Chinese coal investigation: Could water shortages limit coal use?

Calvin Quek
Head, Sustainable Finance Program at Greenpeace
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Greenpeace

China has lots of coal and not much oil – so industry has turned to processes which liquefy coal in order to produce industrial chemicals such as olefins, ethylene and propylenes – used to make the kinds of plastic products we buy every day.

But this growing industry – along with China’s dash for coal power – threatens another resource the country doesn’t have in abundance. Water.

From March to July 2013, Greenpeace East Asia investigated one of the largest of these coal chemical projects in China, Shenhua’s Coal to Liquids Project, located in Ordos Inner Mongolia. Researchers found that through the direct coal liquefaction process. The Coal to Liquids project Shenhua was consuming 6.65 million tons of water annually, and that this was projected to rise 30.7 million tons of water by 2020. 

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On the ground investigations also revealed that the water demands of Shenhua’s project were met by the controversial extraction of groundwater from a water scarce region 100 kilometers away, and had had a direct impact on the livelihoods of over 2,000 households on 80,000 hectares of land. The most visible of these effects could be seen in the dramatic contraction of Subeinaoer Lake, whose surface area has decreased 62% from 2004 to 2011.

Taking into account other coal related operations, such as coal to gas, coal mining, and power plants, Shenhua’s project consumes 14.4 million tons of water today, and is expected to consume 53.6 million tons of water by 2020. 

The massive amounts of water consumed is due to the heavy water intensity of the coal liquefaction process. For every ton of oil produced 3 – 4 tons of coal and 10 tons of water is required, and 0.7 tons of solid waste, 4.8 tons of wastewater, and 9 tons of carbon dioxide is emitted. 

The rise of this industry isn’t just down to a lack of oil in China.

Lack of rail capacity to transport coal from the northwestern supply to the demand centers in the east has left coal production ‘stranded’ coal mines from power plants creating a market for coal to be used for chemical processes.

But – as the investigation showed - the drive to expand the coal to chemical sector has also faced serious environmental and financial headwinds.

First, coal chemical projects are extremely capital intensive with relatively long investment time horizons. Given that the government mandates very large capacity requirements for such projects, only companies who have significant investment capital can embark on these projects..

Second, coal chemical projects can be very sensitive to comparative global commodity prices. According to industry experts, coal is an advantageous feed only if international oil prices stand above USD 80 per barrel. 

Third, and most crucially, the expansion of the coal chemical sector is constrained by China’s water scarcity - a concern raised by Greenpeace but also other organizations such as HSBCBloomberg New Energy Finance, and CLSA
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Work by China Water Risk suggests that given China's current power plant capacity expansion, China will not meet its 2015, 2020, and 2030 targets to cap water consumption unless aggressive water saving and efficiency programs are enacted.
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Looking at a provincial level, there is a similar dynamic. Greenpeace has found that by 2015 China's 14 mega-coal power base water demand is likely to exceed the total 2012 industrial provincial water consumption in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Ningxia
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Given this picture, some industry experts have gone so far as to say that “the ultimate constraint for coal chemical development in China is water”. Taken together, given coal to chemicals projects’ high capital requirements, long time horizons, technology risks, and environmental factors, investors may do well to be wary.  Indeed a recent KPMG survey around 50 percent of respondents described coal-based chemistry projects as ‘high risk’.

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