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BP's latest energy outlook largely follows the ground laid by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which promised the US would become the world's largest oil producer within a decade - thanks to advent of shale oil.
It's forecast sees ever rising global oil demand - even as efficiency measures cut consumption in the US.
It paints a bleak picture for the climate and suggests Asia and Europe will remain dependent on oil imports.
But for the chief executive of the recently troubled oil giant, Bob Dudley, it could only be good news.
"The outlook shows the degree to which once-accepted wisdom has been turned on its head. Fears over oil running out – to which BP has never subscribed – appear increasingly groundless."
Rising production
"The US will not be increasingly dependent on energy imports, with energy set to reinvigorate its economy. And China and India are expected to need a lot more imports to keep growing."
The outlook sees US oil production rise by over 40% between now and 2030 - thanks to newly accessible oil shale, or tight oil reserves.
But it isn't just the US, conventional production from Iraq also increases significantly, contributing to a 17% increase in Middle Eastern production by 2030.
Outside of the US and Middle East there is very little increase in oil production.
Efficiency
But the production numbers belie another, equally surprising story - also highlighted by the IEA.
Oil demand in the US is forecast to fall below 1990 levels within two decades. The change is driven by Obama administration enforced improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency standards.
Without that initiative the advent of shale oil would not be enough for US production to meet US demand.
BP estimates the same improvements around the world with cars becoming between 40 and 50% more fuel efficient by 2025.
It's an impressive statistic, and one which one might think would worry BP's executives, but the outlook expects transport and industrial growth in India and China to drive increased oil use, even as cars become more efficient.
Imports rise
That's why, according to Mr Dudley, the two nations become ever more dependent on oil imports - as well as gas to fuel their power sectors.
It's easy to see why this works well for BP - harder to understand why it believes that the governments of China, India and even Europe.
BP's analysis sees energy imports in Europe remaining stubbornly close to today's levels, with little growth in shale gas and no development of shale oil.
China and India meanwhile see their imports grow by multiples of their current levels.
BP claims this increase will be mitigated by what it forecasts to be 'robust' economic growth - an optimistic assumption in the current environment.
It, wisely, makes no prediction on price though it's assumptions about shale oil suggest prices remaining close to current levels.
Climate
The firm’s data also suggests it is less optimistic about efforts to mitigate climate change.
Its forecast suggests liquid fuel use rising by around 60% to 105Mb/d with oil accounting for over 90mb/d.
Taking into account the IEA's estimates of coal, gas and other fossil fuel use (including switching fromcoal to gas) that is a forecast consistent with significant climate change.
An analysis by oil change international suggests that level of oil demand would lead to warming above the 6 degrees scientists believe could make parts of the world uninhabitable.
Source: oilchangeinternational.com
BP's own analysis accepts the point.
"We assume continued tightening in policies to address climate change, yet emissions remain well above the required path to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases at the level recommended by scientists (450 ppm)."
BP's energy outlook is not meant to be a vision, rather it is a projection of the future based on what is known today about demand, supply and government policy.
Whether it materialises will depend partially on how much oil there is in the ground, and the cost of clean technologies.
But it will also depend on how willing individual governments are to embrace the future BP has outlined.
