The world is worrying about energy; from rising bills to climate change and keeping the lights on, much depends on how the developed world chooses to replace its existing creaking infrastructure and what choices developing countries make as they build up their power supplies.
Nuclear power used to be seen as a way to resolve these problems but has struggled with rising costs and safety failures. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report gives a detailed account of the sector in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster, two years ago.
Global electricity generation from nuclear power dropped by 7% in 2012, after a 4% decline in 2011. While around three quarters of the 2012 decline occurred in Japan, where just 2 reactors are now operating, there was also a drop in output in 16 other countries, including each of the top five generators of nuclear power. In total around the world there are 31 countries operating 427 reactors, a reduction from the peak of 444 in 2002.
As a consequence of the declining output and growing global electricity demand, the share of nuclear energy in the world’s power mix declined steadily from a historic peak of 17 percent in 1993 to about 10 percent in 2012.
The report found there are 14 countries building new nuclear power plants, one more than a year ago with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) starting construction at two reactors at Barrakah.
Chinese investment
The UAE is the first country in 27 years to have started building its first nuclear power plant. Globally there are 66 reactors under construction with a total capacity of 63 GW. However, nine reactors of these reactors have been listed as “under construction” for more than 20 years and four have been listed for 10 years or more.
Two thirds (44) of the units under construction are located in three countries: China, India and Russia. China has by far the largest share, with 28 reactors. However, even in China the pace of ordering has slowed, with no new construction site opening so far in 2013. All in all construction is way below what would have been expected a few years ago.
There are many social, environmental, geopolitical and economic reasons for the troubled state of the industry however, one of the most clear cut is its costs. In the nuclear sector construction is a key determinant of the final electricity generating costs and many projects are significantly over budget. The European Pressurised Water Reactors (EPR) in Finland and France, which are both still under construction and are now expected to be around five years late and more than double the original budget, finally costing at least €8.5 billion each. Few private companies can afford this cost or risk, and government subsidies are needed if new reactors are to be built. This is why the UK Government is proposing both loan guarantees and a high guaranteed electricity price of the proposed EPR reactors at Hinkley without this combination of support new nuclear would be impossible.
Renewable growth
The decline in nuclear is not mirrored by the renewable energy sector, globally the average annual growth rates for onshore wind have been 27% and for solar photovoltaics 42% since 2000. In 2012 wind produced almost 500 TWh and solar power about 100 TWh more than in 2000, while nuclear power generated 100 TWh less.
In 2012 China, Germany and Japan, three of the world’s four largest economies, along with India, generated more power from renewables than from nuclear.
