Analysis
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Graham Thompson

Viewpoint: And the clocks were striking thirteen…

Graham Thompson
Graham is a press officer for Greenpeace who spends longer than is healthy arguing with climate deniers. He achieved the rank of Colonel in the KGB before volunteering to infiltrate the green movement

Our old friend the Telegraph blogger, one-trick wind farm whinger and Prospective Parliamentary less-than-entirely-Candidate for Corby, the far-Right-but-less-than-entirely-Honourable James Delingpole, has an article in the Mail.

The content is, at first glance, the same as his blogs, with the usual list of misrepresentations and fabrications, but this itself is misleading. This piece actually represents a complete reversal of James’s most deeply held beliefs. Whilst there was no obvious difference in his political opinions – climate change is a Marxist conspiracy organised by the Met Office on behalf of the BBC – there is a far more fundamental revision happening.

He still believes that Greenpeace is actually a long-term KGB sleeper cell dedicated to bringing about the new, communist world order. Billionaire climatologists are still sucking the national economy dry with their relentless and fraudulent demands for research grants, just as wind turbines suck electricity out of the national grid and are the greatest crime against humanity since the flood. (The original flood, that is – the recent floods were invented by the Met Office as part of their evil plot, and in fact ‘there has been nothing particularly abnormal about the recent rain’ as there were ‘two years, 1872 and 1768, wetter than the supposed record-breaking year of 2012’. In fact, the Met Office figures show that 2000 was wetter than 2012, but James is trying to prove that the UK is not getting wetter, and so ignores the actual record-breaking year due to its inconveniently recent occurrence). ‘Scientists’, environmentalists and most of all the shadowy power behind the throne, the BBC, remain the true face of evil in the world.

Of course, he had to tone it down a little to get it in print, but the conclusions of the piece are consistent with the conclusions of all of his blogs.

However, the latest piece, whilst reaching the same, inevitable conclusions, does so from an entirely new angle.

The Met Office Hadley Centre’s new computer model of our climate, HadGEM3, has produced some new decadal climate forecasts, which revised their previous forecast from a 0.54 degree rise over the 1971-2000 average, down to a 0.43 degree rise, these figures being the predicted average temperature anomaly of the next three years.

If you don’t feel you fully understand all that, don’t worry, neither did James, and he wisely omitted all of the details and numbers from his Mail piece and instead stated that the Met Office predictions showed that ‘no more global warming is expected till at least 2017’. This is wrong, of course, what the predictions actually say is that the current record-breaking maximum will become the average, but we don’t want to nit-pick, because the real story here is that James predicated an entire article on the new forecasts being correct. One and a half thousand valuable words, an entire page in the Mail’s print edition (even the Telegraph don’t normally allow him in the print edition), entirely based on the accuracy and reliability of the Met Office computer models. The same computer models he previously dismissed as ‘ropey’, ‘dodgy’, ‘pie-in-the-sky’ and ‘woefully inaccurate’.

Nothing in the piece would make any sense had James not immediately and unquestioningly accepted that HadGEM3 is telling us the truth, and presumably not by accident. In this article he crossed the Rubicon, turned his back on the dead-end deniers and embraced climate science.

O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.

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For devil's advocate purposes ...

My reading of what he is saying, translated from Delingpole Fire Speak into rational sceptic English is:

"

If the Met Office are correct, then there will be no more warming for the next five years compared to where we are now, which is somewhere around 0.8C above pre-industrial, and 0.4C above baseline.

That would be a period of no warming for roughly 20 years, even if that 20 year period does start from a high local maximum.

That was not expected by warmists.

It is also a period that is becoming inconvenient for warmists, see eg Santer's 17 years.

The Met Office are reasonably clear that they are scrabbling around for reasons for it - eg ocean heat, soot.  They will also need these to maintain any high level of climate sensititivity.

If it had warmed over the last 15 years, and was projected to warm over the next five, then warmists would be using that as proof of concept, and saying it was entirely consistent with what they'd been saying about GHGs and climate sensitivity.

So why aren't warmists asking any questions given that it hasn't warmed over 15 years, and isn't projected to warm over the next five?  Like, for example what a 20 year pause might say about climate sensitivity from an empirical standpoint.

"

You can attack Delingpole all you want, his style and views make him a great target.  But there's a possibility that today's article has raised quite so much fury for a different reason?

 

Hello Roddy,

The new figures from the Met Office are forecasts, produced by their new 'experimental' climate model, HadGEM3.

In that context, this - 

The Met Office are reasonably clear that they are scrabbling around for reasons for it - eg ocean heat, soot.

Doesn't really make sense. If you think about it. 

Also, your figures are slightly wrong. The forecast average for the next few years is higher than the average for the last few years, or indeed the last few decades - so the trend is still up, as it has been for the last fifteen years. In fact, not only has it warmed over the last fifteen years, but that warming was over the 95% confidence level to be classified as 'statistically significant'.

However, the rate of warming was lower than over the preceeding 15 years, and so there is a real and interesting question about why that was.

Here's an attempt to answer it, with links to more detailed (and peer reviewed) information -

http://www.skepticalscience.com/16_more_years_of_global_warming.html

 

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Of course, he had to tone it down a little to get it in
print, but the conclusions of the piece are consistent with the conclusions of
all of his blogs. alexis vaussenat

Whilst
there was no obvious difference in his political opinions – climate change is a
Marxist conspiracy organised by the Met Office on behalf of the BBC – there is
a far more fundamental revision happening

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This piece actually
represents a complete reversal of James’s most deeply held beliefs. Whilst
there was no obvious difference in his political opinions – climate change is a
Marxist conspiracy organised by the Met Office on behalf of the BBC – there is
a far more fundamental revision happening. blog japan

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This piece actually
represents a complete reversal of James’s most deeply held beliefs. Whilst
there was no obvious difference in his political opinions – climate change is a
Marxist conspiracy organised by the Met Office on behalf of the BBC

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