This piece was originally posted on the Left Foot Forward blog.
For the first time in human history, the concentration of CO2 in theatmosphere has hit 400 parts per million (ppm), a level long seen as critical in measuring the damagedone to the earth by man-made pollution.
Most scientists put the ‘safe level’ of CO2 concentration at around 350 ppm, though ideally it would be much lower. At time of writing, levels stand at 399.72 ppm. The rate is increasing constantly.
The 400 ppm milestone has, admittedly, been breached before. During the Pliocene epoch, 3-5million years ago, carbon levels stood at 415 ppm, according to research by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC, San Diego. At this time, temperatures were up to 4 degrees higher and humans did not yet exist – if we had, we would have been under somewhere between five and 40 metres of sea water.
The Pliocene era is our guide for things to come, only this time the CO2 concentration is increasingmuch faster. In fact it is increasing faster than at any time on record.
At the start of the industrial revolution, when humans began large-scale burning of fossil fuels, CO2ppm stood at 280. By the 1950s it had reached 316 ppm. After breaking the 400 mark in the comingdays, CO2 concentration is expected to reach 450 ppm in the next few decades.
Scripps Institution geologist Ralph Keeling: "I wish it weren't true but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400ppm level without losing a beat. At this pace we'll hit 450ppm within a few decades.”
But what will be the political reaction - if any?
The Government has introduced the Energy Bill (due for report stage next month), promising to clean up the production of the UK’s electricity, but it lacks a legally-binding target to remove carbon from our electricity system by 2030, as recommended by their own climate advisors.
George Osborne’s apparent hope for a dash for gas - including shale - shows some in this government would probably prefer the UK to run on fossil fuels, rather than clean energy. Osborne basis his argument on a claim that we musn't lead the world for fear of being left behind economically.
The Government’s own chief scientific adviser, Professor Sir John Beddington, last month warned that there’s already enough CO2 in the atmosphere to cause more floods and droughts in the UK over the next 25 years. He identified a "need for urgency" in tackling climate change. He said that the later governments left it, the harder it would be to combat.
Internationally, progress is not great. There is still no global consensus on tackling emissions and with climate talks at a stalemate, international negotiations amount to a scary and reckless game of chicken.
All that said, there is still some cause for hope. Last year both China and the USA installed more pollution-free renewable energy than coal. Under President Obama, the US has more than doubled the amount of electricity produced from wind and solar.
So the tools do exist to halt the relentless loading of our atmosphere with CO2. The only question now is if political leaders have the will.
Of course we could do nothing and, just like after the Piocene era, CO2 levels will fall on their own.The only problem is that this could take a few million years.
