In 2011 the UK imported more gas than it produced for the first time since 1967.
Production of natural gas in the UK has been steeply declining since peaking in 2000, and to meet demand, imports have been steeply increasing see our data here.
Imports overtook production last year, and that these trends looks set to continue, it seems that we are indeed - running out of gas.
Production of gas did peak with consumption, but whilst gas consumption is leveling off at about 1000 TWh per year, production is falling fast.
Last year the production of gas was at pre 1990 levels. The gas produced in 2011 equates to about 525 TWh, which is 60% lower than the peak in production in 2000.
How much have we got left?
If we assumed a continuing decline at the current rate, then by 2015 the production curve would hit zero.
But extracting oil and gas isn’t as simple as that, and although production levels drop quite quickly, they tend to flatten at a low level of production, which can continue for many years.
Then there are additional technologies to squeeze the last bits of oil and gas from depleted reservoirs. First the reservoir can be flooded with water pushing as much of the gas to the surface as possible.
Enhanced recovery
Secondly, Enhanced Gas Recovery (EGR) can recover even more gas. EGR can be carried out in a variety of ways including injecting carbon dioxide. The injected CO2 displaces the methane, which is lighter, and pushes it upwards and out of the reservoir.
Since methane will migrate out of the well in preference to CO2, then the CO2 becomes trapped in the reservoir, just as it would in carbon capture and storage. Carbon capture and storage enthusiasts think that EGR and EOR (enhanced oil recovery) is a way of getting CCS off the ground in the UK.
This might sound a bit ridiculous, if we are trying to store carbon dioxide, why are we using it to get more oil and gas out of the ground? But CCS is really expensive, and currently there are no financial incentives for an oil and gas company get on and do it.
By using CO2 to get more oil and gas out of the subsurface, there is a financial incentive, and there should still be a net reduction of CO2 emissions, depending on how the process is carried out.
The problem is that this process is un-developed. It's been been widely used across the US for oil, but EGR with CO2 is less advanced, and neither technology has been carried out offshore. Since99.8% of UK gas is currently produced offshore, then EGR-CCS may be some way off.
So predicting when we will completely run out of gas is difficult, but one thing is certain, we are on the downward slope in production.
Which means more gas will be imported and prices will get higher.
Is Shale Gas the silver bullet?
The short answer is, probably not.
More reserve estimates are expected over the next twelve months but by current optimistic estimates of UK reserves is that there is about 20 trillion cubic feet of gas in the shale rocks beneath: West Lancashire and Cheshire Basins, Stainmore Trough, Cleveland Basin, Wessex and Weald Basins, South Wales Coast, Midlands (Edale and Widmerpool Gulf; Gainsborough Trough), Northumberland Trough and in Northern Ireland.
Even in the event that the citizens of all of these regions were happy to have shale wells drilled "in their back yard" that isn't actually so much gas. 20 tcf might sound like a lot but it would last about 2 years at our current rate of consumption - though of course it would be produced over a longer period.
Even Cuadrilla who are fracking for gas near Blackpool - and those who finance energy firms - say shale is unlikely to be a game changer in the UK no matter how many tax breaks we throw them.
Put very simply, there isn’t much, and it’s not going to be easy to extract it. Fracking by its nature causes lots of micro-seismic events (mini earthquakes), uses a lot of water, and in the UK will take place in populated areas.
Its a regulatory minefield and the in the UK the process of overcoming the hurdles has hardly begun.
