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License: All rights reserved. Credit: Greenpeace

Why energy has got no cleaner - and three other key facts from the IEA's report on tackling climate change.

Damian Kahya
Offshore Wind Farm Baltic One
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Paul Langrock / Zenit / Greenpeace

The International Energy Agency has published its latest look at progress on avoiding extreme climate change - in time for a global ministerial summit on clean energy - check here for the graphics.

The report concludes that progress has "stalled". But the picture is a little more complex. Here are four things you need to know... (maybe)

1) The carbon intensity of power generation around the world has not changed in 20 years.

Between 1990 and 2010, carbon intensity improved by 1%. That is to say if there is a global objective to generate electricity with lower greenhouse gas emissions then that objective has failed.


2) The main thing holding back improvement has been an increase in the share of coal generation.

Globally coal has increased as a share of electricity generation from 37% in 1990 to 40% in 2011 whilst output from coal power plants has more than doubled. 

Coal fired generation has increased by 45% since 2000 - non-fossil fuel generation increased strongly as well, but only by 25%.

More recently, between 2010 and 2012, coal fired generation increased by 6%. Since 1990 coal generation has increased in most regions - including Europe, China and India.

However coal use has fallen in the US due to the rising cost of domestic coal extraction, tougher emissions regulations, increased use of renewables and - most recently and significantly - the availability of relatively cheap gas from shale. 

The glut of hard-to-export gas in the US, however, contributed towards a 24% fall in the cost of coal imports to the EU between 2011 and 2012, which drove up coal use. 

In 2011 enough new (and often inefficient) coal plants were built in China to meet all of Turkey's power needs.

 3) Renewable generation is increasing

Whilst overall efforts to reduce demand, reduce coal generation and increase generation from other low-carbon sources have failed, renewable technologies are doing (perhaps surprisingly) well.

Renewables increased their total share of the global energy mix to 19% by 2011, with most of the increase attributable to more wind generation.

Since then deployment of solar has increased by 42% (2011/12) and wind by 19%.

The rise in renewable investment has coincided with a continuing fall in the cost of the associated technologies, leading to increased deployment outside developed economies.

Whilst the biggest increases in the share of renewable power have been in Europe (around 5%), the share of renewable generation also increased by around 2% in both the US and China since 2008.

 4) Switching from coal to gas in Europe will only happen with a high carbon price (higher than that planned in the UK)

The report concluded that a low price of carbon - even one several times higher than the current rock bottom level - may do little to encourage a coal to gas switch in Europe.

The analysis suggested that at currently estimated coal and gas prices, the EU would need a carbon price of at least 25 Euros to start switching from gas to coal and 50 euros to make coal un-economic. That is above the UK's planned carbon floor price of £30.

In its World Energy Outlook and Golden Rules for a Golden age of gas reports, the IEA has suggested that shale gas - if developed globally - may moderate EU gas price rises but do relatively little to lower prices. 

 


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