Fact-check
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Greenpeace

Factcheck: How 'supply margins' turn to 'blackouts'

Damian Kahya
License: All rights reserved. Credit: Greenpeace

Under an image of parliament shrouded in darkness the Telegraph warns that the eurozone crisis and environmental regulations could bring back blackouts by 2015.

The copy underneath doesn't actually mention black-outs though, referring instead to 'risks' highlighted in Ofgem's "capacity market assessment".

What that says is that the 'spare capacity margin' is likely to fall to around 4% by 2015. So what does that mean?

Well, a quick chat to Ofgem reveals that should this happen we'll be roughly where we were in 2005 and 2007; both years in which parliament remained stubbornly well lit. 

Like most things in energy the report is very geeky, dealing with multiple uncertainties.

The biggest variations in its predictions come from assumptions about whether we will import or export electricity to Europe, how much power we consume and how many gas plants will or won't be built and whether old plants will come out of retirement (they call them mothballed).

A great deal therefore depends on what the government does between now and then on efficiency, interconnection and power generation. 

In Ofgem's base case, we don't build much gas, and - on balance - we  don't import much power from Europe, indeed, we remain a net exporter - we also do very little on efficiency beyond the impact of a weak economy.

If that happens what is the risk?

"If we do have a margin that low it means you could have a greater risk of industrial customers being cut off," an Ofgem spokesperson explains.

This has happened before.

The grid has a responsibility to keep the lights on in domestic households ahead of most other things and it does this - en extremis - by asking industrial users of power to switch their usage to different times of day. 

The chance of disconnecting (not very many) household customers, Ofgem concludes, is about 1 in every 12 years - assuming, of course, that the margins stay that tight for 12 years.

That isn't to say the report isn't serious though.

The regulator presents its latest finding as an update to the work it it did in 2010's Project Discovery which first recommended fundamental reform of the UK's electricity market.

The report presented four options for energy investment including a 'Dash for Energy' and 'Green Transition'. 

It warned that if we are forced to dash for gas the UK would be left highly vulnerable to imported fuels and bills could rise by 60% by 2016.

Today's update presents a grim footnote.

An energy system which is both short on capacity, and heavily reliant on gas would - Ofgem have warned - be very vulnerable to global price and supply shocks.

Others, of course, disagree - arguing that plentiful shale gas supplies will mitigate this risk so long as we have enough power plants to burn it.

That assumes that shale gas in Europe and elsewhere will come on stream by then.

It's this debate that is likely to mould energy policy over the next two decades.

So parliament is unlikely to be shrouded in darkness, but bills could - or could not - be very volatile. 

 

 

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