Affordable energy calculator Q&A

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What is the Affordable Energy Calculator tool?

A tool that allows users to to input data about their home, and estimate:

  • What their energy bills would be in 2030 with improved energy efficiency such as insulation and the installation of a heat pump
  • What their energy bills would be in 2030 ‘with no change to the energy efficiency of their home or heating system
  • How much a user could save on their annual energy bill every year until 2030

Please note that the tool does not include the additional energy costs that disabled people, or people with health needs have to pay for in addition to standard energy bills or any additional costs due to high prepayment metre bills. Greenpeace supports demands against the enforcement of prepayment metres, and supports additional financial support for people struggling with their bills as well as a targeted energy efficiency scheme that helps households struggling with fuel poverty first and foremost.

The tool does not include any costs of installation, effectively assuming that the government has paid for this. We assume that gas prices remain consistently high until 2030 while electricity prices come down in response to a higher proportion of renewables in the energy mix. Running a heat pump is therefore more affordable in future. Other things which are not included in this estimated bill – standing charges and policy costs.

This is based on the premise that:

  • Assumes in 2030 results that the user will have had their home insulated to at least an EPC C standard as a result of a government funded programme.
  • Assumes in 2030 results that the user will have had a heat pump installed in their home as a result of a government funded programme.

Who are Cambridge Econometrics?

Cambridge Econometrics is an economics consultancy that works globally from offices in Cambridge (UK), Brussels, Budapest and Northampton, Massachusetts. We specialise in economic research and the application of economic modelling and data analysis techniques for policy assessment and scenario planning.  We work on challenges facing economies, societies and the natural environment. The scope of our work includes an Environment pillar of work, which covers analysis of the interactions between energy, climate, circular economy, natural resources and the economy and society.

We began life in the late 1970s as a spin-off from the University of Cambridge, taking forward the work carried out in the Cambridge Growth Project founded by Nobel Prize winner Richard Stone, and are now majority-owned by the educational charity the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in Economics.  We have been included in the Financial Times’ annual list of the UK’s leading management consultancies since 2000.

What questions do you ask? Why these questions to get to the right data?

To estimate future bills, the background calculations in the tool first estimate heat demand based on the size and efficiency of a home, it then uses the information about the heating technology installed in the home to determine how much energy is needed to produce that heat demand, and whether the home is using gas, electricity or oil as an energy source to produce heat. All these characteristics are needed so that the calculator can arrive at the final, estimated bill.

What type of home do you live in? Who owns your home? How many bedrooms does your home have? What year was your home built? 

We need to know various characteristics about the home so we can pick the right data points from underlying data (e.g. we utilise this dataset: ONS data on average energy performance of dwellings, to give us energy efficiency scores by property type, by tenure, by country and region) and use these data points within calculations to estimate heat demand. The answers to all these questions provide the calculator with the information it needs to pick the correct average energy efficiency score (in the absence of this being provided by the user) and to estimate the average floor space of the property. These two things allow an estimation of heat demand to be made.

What type of heating do you have?

We need to know this first so we can determine how much energy is required to produce the heat needed for the home specified by the characteristics above (assumptions about coefficient of performance according to different heating technologies are applied) and second so that we can use the right unit prices (i.e. for electricity, gas or oil) to calculate the annual bill.

What is your EPC band?

This question is included to allow for a more accurate estimation of heat demand, if the user is able to tell us easily what their EPC rating is. If they do not know this information, then the calculator relies on the earlier responses to pick the right average EPC rating based on the underlying data categorised by property tenure, age, type and location.

What will you do with the data?

Data collected on this form will be stored anonymously and used to illustrate how much people across the UK could save on their energy bills.

What assumptions did you make?

Variable Source Assumptions
Floor area Floor space in English homes – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Mapped unaligned periods of time as follows: Pre 1919 to pre 1900, 1919-1944 to 1900 to 1929, 1945-1964/1965-1974/1975-80 to 1930-1982, 1981-1990/1990-2002 to 1983 to 2011, 2002 onwards to 2012 onwards.

Assumed that 1 bed house = 1 bed terraced house. Missing data for 3 and 4 bedroom flats and maisonettes, and 1 and 2 bed detached houses were extrapolated using data for other housing types.
Proportion of energy used for heating Energy consumption in the UK 2021 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Assumed that heating demand comes from gas use.
Energy Performance by Region, Age, Dwelling Type and Tenure Energy efficiency of Housing, England and Wales, country and region – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) EPC rating changes as the construction period changes by the same proportion for each region.
Energy consumption

Energy Performance of Buildings Search Results (opendatacommunities.org)

Scottish Government: Domestic Energy Performance Certificates (dataset to Q3 2022)

Housing Executive: Housing Condition Survey

 Houses with less than 40 Square metres floor area/ over 1000 kWh/m2 energy demand are regarded as outliers and therefore removed from the dataset.
Energy prices Policy Paper: energy price guarantee

Gas price remains constant between 2022 and 2030. These 2022- 2030 are based on Cornwall insights which predict prices being broadly flat after 2023.

Electricity price starts decreasing between 2025 and 2030 due to higher deployment of renewable energy.

Oil prices are based on an average 1,000 litre purchase in September 2022.
Efficiency factors Knobloch et. al., 2017

Heat pump efficiency factor is estimated as an average of efficiency factors of ground source heat pump, Air/water heat pump and Air/air heat pump.

Assuming district heating is mainly fuelled by gas and that gas prices in district heating are the same as residential gas prices.
Energy bill Cambridge Econometrics calculations Includes costs of heating, lighting and appliances, but does not account for standing charges.
Region Energy efficiency of Housing, England and Wales, country and region – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Due to data availability, this toolkit only provides results for England and Wales.
Condensing boiler characteristics Installing an energy efficient boiler – Energy Saving Trust

What does Greenpeace aim to do with this tool?

First and foremost we aim to inform people of the massive benefits of having a government funded programme that will keep their home energy efficient, reducing their demands for energy and therefore their bills, and decarbonising their heating systems meaning they are not reliant on expensive gas. We aim to encourage people to share the tool with their friends and community, and most importantly we want users to share this data with the Treasury in advance of the Spring Statement to demand that the Chancellor commits at least a further  £5.3 billion on energy efficiency funding this Parliament. Following that we would like users to share data with their local constituency MPs in advance of a mass lobby we’re planning in April on the day that our bills are due to go up, and to make it clear to all political parties that funding energy efficiency measures is crucial to reducing fuel poverty and the UK’s emissions.

What are Greenpeace’s demands on energy efficiency measures and renewable energy?

  1. The Government must commit £5.3bn immediately for the rest of this parliament for investment in energy efficiency measures – including both quick to deploy measures like draft proofing and loft insulation, and medium term measures like solid wall insulation. This would insulate over a million homes by the end of this Parliament. There should also be commitment to a major programme of energy efficiency work through the rest of the 2020s.
  2. Commit £3.37bn now as part of a market mechanism to accelerate the transition away from gas heating towards installation of heat pumps.
  3. More than triple the amount of renewable energy in the UK by 2030. Remove barriers to onshore and offshore wind + invest in solar in particular.
  4. £14bn worth of targeted measures to immediately support households struggling with bills – 7 million households still at risk of fuel poverty in the UK (many of whom have pre-existing health conditions, are disabled, or have young families)
  5. Windfall tax (how this could be funded)
  • Properly tax the windfalls of oil and gas companies – going significantly beyond the gov’s current plans through, in the first instance, closing the investment allowance, and then exploring options to ramp up the tax level further to tap into the £170bn that a HMT leaked document has suggested is available as excess profit from UK gas producers and electricity generators over the next two years
  • Close the investment allowance loophole
  • Tax excess revenues from nuclear and renewables in a way which is fair/ proportionate in comparison to O&G – ensuring that all energy companies are taxed renewable solutions (not including nuclear) still have a market advantage over polluting fossil fuels
  • Tax the excess profits of gas-power electricity generators, some of whom are making very good money
  • In the medium term introduce taxes on traders who are taking cuts of higher prices

Energy efficiency

How are fossil fuels and energy efficiency connected to the cost of living crisis?

Since 2021, and particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, gas prices have been volatile and at times have peaked at ten times those of the first half of 2021. While the government has made interventions to prevent the entire price rise being passed on to consumers, these interventions have been insufficient to stop the spread of fuel poverty in Britain. Figures from December 2022 showed that 9 million adults are now living in fuel poverty. This is a crisis which will not go away without intervention at scale –  gas prices will remain high out to 2030 according to analysts.

Given that the gas market is now global, and that prices in Asia and Europe are linked via the Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) market, there is no prospect that boosting UK supply will have any impact on prices and the cost of living here in the UK. As the Co-director of the UK Energy Research Centre put it: “The message should be clear: the answer is not more gas supply, it’s less gas demand… it will free the country from fossil fuel price volatility and reliance on importing a large share of its energy.”

A real energy security package for the UK, which would improve the cost of living and tackle the climate crisis, would mean prioritising energy efficiency measures, along with accelerating the transition to cheaper renewable energy. We must not, at this crisis point, make the same mistakes as the past. If the Cameron government had not “cut the green crap” in 2014 there would be £2.5bn wiped off our energy bills. While the situation is dire, there are simple and clear solutions for the government to pursue.

What impact would decarbonising our homes have on reducing our emissions?

Heating and cooking in the UK currently account for about 14% of the UK’s total emissions. The International Energy Agency has stated that: “heat pumps, which can efficiently provide heating to buildings and industry, are the key technology to make heating more secure and sustainable” (their emphasis) . Even when being powered by gas-power stations, a heat pump in the UK will reduce carbon emissions by 42% compared to using a gas boiler.

How cost effective are heat pumps and how could they reduce energy bills?

Heat pumps allow heating to use renewable electricity. The IEA go on to say: “Over their lifetime, heat pumps can save consumers money and shield them from price shocks. The average household or business that uses a heat pump spends less on energy than those using a gas boiler. These savings offset the higher upfront costs for heat pumps in many markets today – in some, even without subsidies.” This is backed up by UK-specific analysis that, even for prices pre-Ukraine war, well-installed heat pumps will be cheaper to run than gas boilers.

What is the state of play for insulation across the UK?

The UK has the draughtiest homes in western europe, meaning that a huge proportion of the expensive energy that is being used to heat homes is wasted. 19 million homes are currently ranked EPC D or below. A household with an EPC rating of F will spend on average almost £1000 more annually on their energy bills than a household with an EPC rating of C.

The current rate of loft and wall insulation measures going into houses under government schemes is now 95% lower than in 2012, when a government decision was made to ‘cut the green crap’. In order to reduce energy wastage, and reach legally binding emissions reduction targets, insulation rates must rapidly increase.

How can we justify mass investment in energy efficiency spending at a time when public finances are so tight?

First and foremost, the narrative of austerity which stipulates that public investment should be limited is problematic, and political. We are undoubtedly in a time of economic hardship, in part deepened by Trussonomics last Autumn. However the idea that public investment is not possible is arguably dangerous on multiple fronts as investment is badly needed for climate action as well as key public services such as health care. What this logic also fails to acknowledge is the cost saving benefits of investments, which we have demonstrated to be true in the context of climate funding, specifically around energy efficiency measures.

The ECIU found that the Treasury could break even on insulating millions of homes around the end of the Parliamentary term. A report by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by Greenpeace found that insulating homes in Britain and installing heat pumps could benefit the economy by £7bn a year and create 140,000 new jobs by 2030, demonstrating on two counts the boost to the economy investing in energy efficiency could provide, particularly by reducing the need for further public subsidies on energy bills.

Could all homes be upgraded with energy efficiency measures to EPC C insulation by 2030?

Since David Cameron’s decision to cut “the green crap” (by cutting onshore wind projects, solar projects and subsidies for energy efficiency spending) a decade ago,  the number of homes having their lofts or cavity walls insulated each year dropped by 92% and 74% in 2013 respectively and has never recovered. This sharp drop means that Government targets are far less attainable, with 19 million homes EPC D rated and under. To deliver the scale required the energy industry would need to meet and then exceed the 1.65 million energy efficiency measures it installed in 2012, to ensure we get to over 2 million homes per year upgraded to EPC Band C and above.

There are concerns, as have been raised in the Net Zero review around skills shortages. The Government needs to encourage and fund training shortages to fill these gaps, and make sure we have as many highly skilled insulation experts across the country who can roll out a nationwide insulation programme. According to the CCC to insulate all homes to EPC C by 2050 it would cost £55 billion of investment, so significant funding is needed. We also need to cement pre existing Government commitments into legislation to push the Government into action, e.g. amend the Energy Bill to ensure delivery of EPC band C for social housing and privately rented premises by 2028, EPC band B for non-domestic premises by 2030 and EPC band C for the homes of those in fuel poverty by 2030.

What action has the government taken in the last six months on energy efficiency?

In the last six months the following progress has been made, but this is far from enough.

  • Autumn statement : £6 billion in 2025-28
  • Mini budget: This is part of what Kwasi Kwarteng announced in his short-lived mini-budget, but did survive. He announced an additional £1 billion for EE –  which means 70,000 homes are due to gain full house retrofit plus heat pump and heating system revamp. But this is way short of what’s required given the need – 19 million homes EPC D and under.
  • Narrative acceptance of EE as important for fuel poverty and climate crisis amongst journalists, Labour big time and to a superficial extent with Conservatives.
  • Public BEIS info campaign worth £18 million to help people be more EE at home and reduce bills

Has the government committed to insulating all homes by 2030?

The Government has committed to a strategy to insulate as many homes as is reasonably possible by 2030. BEIS/ Grant Shapps statutory duties under the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act 2000 required that a Strategy be set for ensuring that “as many as is  reasonably practicable of the homes in which [persons in England who live in fuel poverty] live have  a minimum energy efficiency rating of Band C”, by 31 December 2030.

There was also a commitment in the Green Growth Plan of 2017 to ensure all homes reached EPC Band C by 2035 where practical, cost-effective and affordable.

The current government commitments to the below target, but these need to be enshrined in law via the Energy Bill, specifically:

  • Amend the Energy Bill to ensure delivery of
    • EPC band C for social housing and privately rented premises by 2028,
    • EPC band B for non-domestic premises by 2030
    • and EPC band C for the homes of those in fuel poverty by 2030

How close are the Government to meeting their targets on energy efficiency?

The Environmental Audit Committee (Jan 2023) recently pointed out that only  £6.6 billion has been committed this Parliament to energy efficiency, whilst  in the 2019 Conservative manifesto £9.2billion in public investment was committed, with more support grants available and greater backing to help the industry train up and deploy the tens of thousands of jobs this area offers.

19 million homes are currently EPC D rated or below, so if the Government wanted to insulate as many homes as possible to EPC C standards by 2030, they would need to insulate roughly 2.7 million homes over the next next seven years to get to this target. According to Carbon Brief in 2021, just over 32,000 lofts were insulated and almost 40,000 cavity walls were installed- insinuating that the Government is nowhere near close to meeting that target.  According to the IPPR there is still a £4.2 billion funding gap for heat pumps between 2020-2025, and a notable drop in spending for Energy Efficiency during the 2025- 2028 period (despite the £6 billion commitment) as this is a period when spending needs to increase substantially.

How does this relate to our net zero targets?

Regarding the UK’s Net Zero targets, IPPR analysis has shown that the UK is currently lagging behind schedule. “IPPR analysis shows how the UK is currently installing only 11 per cent of the heat pumps, 12 percent of the cavity wall insulations, 3 percent of the loft insulations and 3 percent of the solid wall insulations needed by 2028 to keep pace with net zero.”

How does this relate to the Climate Change Committee’s estimates of funding required?

Recent spending plans, such as funding for local authority delivery (LADs) schemes and off grid properties (Home Upgrade Schemes otherwise known as HUGs) have increased over time. The commitment to uplift ECO spending targets to £1 billion per year by 2026 with the addition of the £1 billion from the mini budget has also marked an increase in spending on EE measures.

Could all homes actually have a heat pump installed by 2030?

The take up of heat pumps has been too slow, and that we hope this tool will tangibly demonstrate why a quicker roll out of heat pumps will be beneficial to reducing our reliance on gas in our heating systems, as well as reducing our bills. We don’t need every home to have a heat pump by 2030, but we do need to ensure that all boiler failures and housing upgrades get a heat pump and not a new gas boiler by that date.

There is a ban on all new gas boilers by 2033, but this does give room for, for example, a new gas boiler to be installed in 2032 which may be emitting CO2 and methane emissions up until the end of that boiler’s lifetime, typically 15-20 years.  There is a need ultimately for heat pump installation to get to about 1.7mn of instalments per year, the current number of heating installations done each year, and then stay at that level for 15 years or so, such that boilers are replaced as they come to end of life, ultimately replacing all of them.

A major challenge, as was pointed out in the Net Zero review is a skills shortage, which is an issue for decarbonisation in other sectors as well.

How many homes currently have heat pumps across the UK?

In May 2021 less than a quarter of a million of the UK’s 29 million homes had heat pumps. That translates to 1.48 heat pumps per 1,000 households in 2021. The UK is one of the worst countries on this measure because almost every home (around 85 per cent) has a gas boiler (compared to fewer than 50 per cent in France and Germany) in 2023.

Have the government committed to installing heat pumps in all homes by 2030?

No. The 2021 Heat and Building Strategy has committed to phasing out the use of systems – such as natural gas and heating oil boilers  – that can only operate using fossil fuels by 2035. The strategy ruled out implementing a ban and focused on incentivising the installation of low carbon heating alternatives instead.

Chris Skidmore’s Net Zero review, which was Government commissioned in 2022 recommends a ban on the sale and installation of all natural gas boilers in the next ten years. A part of that review recommending the introduction of a ban on the sale and installation of existing boilers on the market by 2033 has been proposed to the government as part of a ten-year plan to ensure widespread adoption of heat pumps.

To meet the UK’s climate change targets, the government wants to install 600,000 low-carbon heat pumps annually within five years – currently only 50,000 are installed annually.

What are the barriers to people having heat pumps installed at the moment?

One of the main barriers to heat pumps is a lack of technical understanding, or of the benefits, perceived hassle and disruption. This is one of the reasons Greenpeace commissioned this tool, in order to educate the public on some of the benefits of heat pumps.

The challenge is that installation costs, especially one-off costs for the installation of the first heat pump in a property, can be  high. This can be managed through the Boiler Upgrade grant scheme which offers people up to £5000 for each new install (roughly half the cost), and £10,000 for low income households. However an issue has been poor take up, and a lack of trained engineers. With the current grant, commercial offers from companies such as Octopus can now be as low as £2000 to install.  British Gas have also recently announced low installation offers of £3000, and are training up to 3,500 workers to help install heat pumps.

As heat pumps come down in cost the Regulatory Assistance Project recommends a combination of grants, loans, and heat service offerings. But for now it is important to build the market and signal large scale deployment in order for there to be a building of skills and supply chain development.

What Government schemes in recent years have supported Energy Efficiency measures?

  • Green Homes Grant (GHG) (2020-2021)
  • Local Authority Delivery (LAD) Phases 1-3 (2020-2023)
  • Warm Home Discount (WHD) (2022-2026)
  • Home Upgrade Grant (HUG) Phases 1-2 (2020-2025)
  • Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (SHDF) waves 1-4 (2021-2030)
  • Energy Company Obligation (ECO) 4 (2022-2026)

 What support can households get to improve their home insulation and heating energy efficiency / green heat?

This funding is not delivered directly by the government, but through installers, local authorities, energy companies and other bodies.

There are currently five different schemes available.

  • Your property must have a valid energy performance certificate* with no outstanding recommendations for loft or cavity wall insulation.
  • This scheme is open to people in England and Wales.
  • The scheme is ‘installer-led’, which means your chosen installer will:
    • make a BUS application on your behalf
    • liaise with Ofgem on most matters related to the scheme
    • tell Ofgem when they’ve installed your heating system
    • claim the money from Ofgem at the end of the project
  • Local Authority Delivery Scheme (Sustainable Warmth Competition) – covering mostly insulation, heating controls, low carbon heat and PV
    • (LAD 2) You could be eligible if you:
      • have an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) of D, E, F or G. (the local coordinator in your area can check this for you), and
      • have a combined annual household income under £30,000 (gross), or be in receipt of certain benefits or LA target area
    • (LAD 3) see below

Area Breakdowns

HUG1 and LAD3

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sustainable-warmth-competition-successful-local-authorities/sustainable-warmth-competition-successful-local-authorities

Landlords

Since 2018 new legislation has meant that landlords cannot rent out properties that are below an EPC rating of E, unless they have an exemption.

If you’re a buy-to-let landlord, it is now a legal requirement that your property has an EPC rating of E or above before you can take on a new tenant or renew an existing contract. Since 2020, this rule applies to all properties with existing tenancies, too.

Current proposals say landlords will have to improve their properties up to at least a C. The current dates are for new tenancies by 2025 and for existing tenancies by 2028, but these dates could shift. As of May 2022, over half (56%) of available rental properties on Rightmove have an EPC rating below a C, making the task at hand a significant one.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-the-sustainable-warmth-competition/sustainable-warmth-competition-questions-and-answers

The government’s Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) is used to give your property a numerical score that is divided into bands:

  • – EPC rating A = 92-100 SAP points (Green)
  • – EPC rating B = 81-91 SAP points (Green)
  • – EPC rating C = 69-80 SAP points (Green)
  • – EPC rating D = 55-68 SAP points (Yellow)
  • – EPC rating E = 39-54 SAP points (Amber)
  • – EPC rating F = 21-38 SAP points (Orange)
  • – EPC rating G = 1-20 SAP points (Red)

How would you fund a nationwide roll out of heat pumps and an energy efficiency programme?

Much of the above spending commitments could be funded through a proper windfall tax on energy producer profits. The government’s current plans must go significantly further through, in the first instance, closing the perverse Investment Allowance, which incentivises companies to drill for more oil and gas rather than pay tax. This would also the public purse to benefit from higher taxes from energy companies.  Last year a Treasury leaked document suggested £170bn is available as excess profit from UK gas producers and electricity generators over the next two years. They are certainly not taxing gas-power producers for the windfall they are getting. Longer-term measures can be supported through the £16bn green gilt and UK Infrastructure Bank, and initiating a new green term funding scheme from the Bank of England to enable cheap credit for retrofits.

Political events or reports

What are the major political events coming up that could influence energy efficiency spending or legislation?

The Spring Statement is a really important marker in the calendar for 2023 and a key opportunity to increase spending on energy efficiency. We are calling for our demands to be committed to in the upcoming Spring Statement. Greenpeace calls for the Government to invest £5.3 billion by the end of this Parliament, and we are demanding that Hunt announces a commitment to this spending to ensure that an expanded energy efficiency programme can be executed as soon as possible. The Autumn budget will also be an important marker for spending on energy efficiency (as both are every year). With regards to potentially legally binding targets, the Energy Bill is a crucial opportunity for the Government to legislate on its pre-existing commitments on energy efficiency.

What did the Environmental Audit Committee recommend the Government should act on on energy efficiency measures?

They stated that energy efficiency was crucial as a means to achieve our net zero targets.

“The extra money promised on energy efficiency should be brought forward now to fulfil the Government’s manifesto commitment, not begin to be spent after a two year interval. We recommend that the Government launch a national ‘war effort’ push on energy saving and efficiency.

The Government must treat the upgrading of all homes in England at band D or below to band C as a national priority to ensure affordability, enhance the UK’s energy security and reduce the high emissions from the country’s leaky and draughty building stock.

We call on the newly announced Energy Efficiency Taskforce to work with the Chancellor to allocate a proportion of the Energy Profits Levy revenue in the current Parliament to increasing energy efficiency investments, targeting these investments at the most vulnerable to lower permanently the costs of heating their home”

What about the Climate Change Committee in June 2022?

The CCC in short argued that unless significant action is taken on reducing emissions from the UK’s housing stock, the UK will likely not meet our Net Zero target. An energy efficiency national programme would be the speediest and most effective way of dealing with these issues.

What did the Net Zero review recommend on insulation and energy efficiency measures?

  • Quality of the installation matters; training and installation standards need to be accelerated to support this.
  • Government should include an Energy Efficiency Taskforce workstream on green finance products to report by the end of 2023. This should help to support those in low EPC rated properties to carry out green home upgrades and should identify opportunities to crowd-in private finance, alongside public funding.
  • Government should bring forward all consultations and work to mandate the Future Homes Standards by 2025 to prevent further delays by ensuring the standard applies to all developments. This should include a consultation on mandating new homes to be built with solar and deliver the Net Zero Homes Standard.
  • Government should ensure the right policies are in place to achieve the UK’s demand reduction targets, with interim targets and milestones to hit this goal. Noting the UK’s 2050 net zero ambitions, the government should publish clear analysis of which mix of policy measures gets the UK to the 15% target and assure future funding for those policies.
  • Government should expand its energy efficiency advice service in 2023, ensuring that it help consumers to access qualified traders and providers in local areas
  • Government should support establishing retrofit hubs by 2025 to bridge the gap between households and suppliers. These could enable installers to seek training and impartial advice and could connect households to suitable installers.
  • Government should mandate that EPCs are updated on a regular basis, using a new metric which better reflects current relative costs of heat pumps and accounts for wider benefits from low-carbon heating systems. Under this new metric, EPC ratings could become a more holistic Net Zero Performance Certificate (NZPC), giving consumers more detailed information about the heating technology used in the property and its associated financial and social effects
  • Government should legislate for all homes sold by 2033 to also have an EPC rating of C or above in line with the aforementioned NZPC, with exclusions around certain properties (e.g. listed properties, on grounds of affordability). Government should also mandate landlords to include ‘average bill cost’ alongside the EPC (and possible future NZPC) rating, when letting a property out. This will help renters understand what costs to expect, while also helping to put a premium on energy efficient homes.
  • Government should consider options to support homes to include roof solar panels installation as part of its retrofit provision to support homes reaching the Net Zero Homes Standard.

What did the Net Zero review group recommend on heat pumps?

  • The government should set a legislative target for gas free homes and appliances by 2033, to contribute to a gas free grid in future.
  • The government should provide certainty by 2024 on the new and replacement gas boiler phase out date to drive industry and investor confidence. The Review recommends bringing the proposed date of 2035 forward and legislating for 2033.
  • The government should deliver the Heat Pump Investment Accelerator to catalyse private investment for at least two major heat pump factories in the UK.
  • The government should choose from multiple options which could help increase heat pump efficiency:
  • Suppliers say this could be done via a mandate stating the minimum efficiency which needs to be achieved by all installations. The government should test whether this could be done by most major installers for most properties.
  • Set up a heat pump coefficient of performance competition, run for example by the Energy Efficiency taskforce. This will show the state-of the-art technologies with higher efficiencies and allow others to replicate these
  • The government should extend the Boiler Upgrade Scheme to 2028 and consider whether grant levels should be increased in light of inflationary pressures, before being scaled down over time. This should happen alongside efforts to increase awareness of government support. Support for those unable to afford the upfront costs associated with improving energy efficiency and moving to low carbon heating systems should be continued and expanded, namely through the Home Upgrade Grant (HUG), Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund (SHDF) and other existing schemes for low-income households.
  • The government should set the policy framework and supportive investment environment to encourage reskilling and greater training opportunities in the heat pump sector and work to encourage adoption of standards to increase firms able to take up existing schemes.
  • The government should implement the off-gas grid regulations that envisage the end of new and replacement fossil fuel heating systems in the mid-2020s.

What is the Energy Bill? Why is it important?

The Energy Bill going through the Lords in January and the Commons late Feb/ early March in 2023 is incredibly important in order for the UK to reach our 2030 climate targets to reduce emissions by 68%. Greenpeace alongside Warm This Winter are calling for the following commitments to be made into law:

  • Private renting EPC C by 2028
  • No fuel poor homes EPC C by 2030
  • Social housing EPC C by 2028
  • Non commercial building EPC B by 2030

What does the government need to act on to rapidly roll out renewables?

In particular the offshore grid and site allocation needs a strategic overview such that offshore wind is efficiently and cost effectively connected to the onshore grid, and that offshore wind farms are located where they minimise impact on biodiversity. There should also be an amendment to the Energy Bill putting the government ambition of 95% zero carbon power by 2030 into law.

The fastest new form of generation to deploy is solar power. The Government needs to take the brakes off delivery by clarifying in the National Policy Planning Framework the value to the UK of field scale solar, and the need to reach the target of 70GW by 2035 from the British Energy Security Strategy. To those who argue in favour of roof-deployment (which Greenpeace very much supports) there needs to be specific policies in place including tax changes to ensure delivery at scale. Without them, opposition to field scale deployment is hypocritical.

Onshore wind remains an important part of the drive for lowering costs and energy security. Most projections for removing fossil fuels from the power supply show it at least doubling from current level. To achieve this, a much more permissive planning policy is needed in England, as well as unlimited capacity on the annual renewable auctions, and a cap price for those auctions which recognises that supply chains have got markedly more expensive over the last 12 months.

Both onshore wind and solar need to be able to connect much more easily to the grid at either at transmission or distribution level. Currently connection times are far too long. This could be accelerated by there being an obligation on Ofgem (and thence the electricity network companies) to deliver net zero emissions by 2050, including the intermediate carbon budgets. An amendment should be put into the current Energy Bill going through Parliament.

How much cheaper is gas than renewables?

The price of gas is likely to remain high for years to come. Alongside being a finite resource and a cause of climate change, high prices mean the government must urgently upgrade the UK’s energy mix and accelerate the transition away from expensive and polluting fossil fuels. Renewable energy over the summer was nine times cheaper than gas power, a difference that will come down with lowered gas price but even as prices have fallen it is still 5.5 times higher than the latest offshore wind price. Similarly onshore wind and solar are priced well below £50/MWh (in 2012 prices) compared to current typical power prices.

Fuel Poverty

Who is particularly affected by fuel poverty in the UK?

Fuel poverty disproportionately affects different demographics of people on the basis of age, region, race and whether people own/ rent homes. A 2021 study by Friends of the Earth (referenced below) mapped these differences, which will now be exaggerated as bills have doubled on average.

Region

  • “New analysis of fuel poverty data highlights disparities across the country: 41% of neighbourhoods in the West Midlands are rated worst for fuel poverty compared to just 1% for the South East region.”
  • “Newham, Stoke-on-Trent, Barking & Dagenham and Wolverhampton identified as local authorities with highest proportion of neighbourhoods ranking poorly for fuel poverty”

Race

  • “Research based on government statistics finds people of colour are twice as likely to be living in neighbourhoods with the highest number of fuel poor households”

Age

  • “Government research has also shown that young people are more likely to live in fuel poverty than older people. 25% of households in the youngest age bracket (16-24) are deemed to be fuel poor, compared to 11% for 60-74-year-olds.”

Disability

  • Disabled people are also particularly affected by fuel poverty and the cost of living crisis. Many medical and mobility devices require electricity meaning on average disabled people have much higher energy bills just for using equipment they need in their day to day lives.
  • “Just under half of all people living in poverty in the UK are disabled or living with a disabled person. Prior to the recent and extreme increases in energy costs, disabled people are already more likely to live in a cold home during the winter months.”

How is this related to energy efficiency?

Energy efficiency measures, as this tool demonstrates, are crucial to reducing bills. A Guardian report found that EPC C rated homes on average pay almost £1000 less a year per household than EPC F rated homes. For communities that are facing fuel poverty, and particularly for people who need life saving equipment and therefore need more energy- having a home that does not waste heat and therefore money is crucial in order to stay healthy, and to be able to afford day to day life.

What about private renters or people who live in social housing who cannot control whether they get their home insulated or their access to heat pump installation?

This is a serious issue that ultimately puts those that are not home owners at a severe disadvantage financially, and in regards to their health. There are sadly now many tragic cases of households complaining of severe mould, dampness and lack of insulation with no response which has at times ended in deaths as a result of health issues. There is currently a Government commitment to the following measures for private rented homes and social housing, which Greenpeace is campaigning to be enshrined in law via the Energy Bill.

Other questions

I can’t afford to install a heat pump. How is this tool helpful to me?

A heat pump doesn’t just turn electricity into heat, it uses the energy you put into it to collect more energy, and so it acts like a generator as well as a heating system. That means most of the energy it actually uses to heat your home is free to the consumer, and so it is very cost efficient to run. But it is expensive to install. That’s why it’s not an attractive option to people who need to save money in the long term, but can’t afford the installation costs. But that problem doesn’t apply to the government, who have the financial muscle to think long term, if they so choose.

This tool has not been designed to convince people to buy their own heat pump primarily, we believe it is the duty of the national government to provide grants, and funding mechanisms to enable people to decarbonise their heating and insulate their homes to make them more energy efficient and reduce gas demand (at least in line with the Government’s commitment to 15% reduction) but also to reduce their bills. This tool makes a clear case for that, and encourages members of the public to engage with both the Treasury and their MPs on this.

Heat pumps are incredibly expensive to install, how will the Government/ public/ companies afford to install a heat pump in every home?

Heat pumps are currently more expensive to install, however this initial cost often pays off as their installation reduces the cost of bills most of the time, largely depending on whether homes are insulated. Either way, this high initial cost should be affordable to anyone, whatever house they live in hence the need for more public grants, investment in training and improved market mechanisms.

I’ve heard heat pumps don’t work in cold countries. Is that true?

Heat pumps are the main source of heating in Finland, a clear sign that heat pumps are compatible in cold climates! Here’s an explainer on how heat pumps work, particularly in colder countries and the UK:

“Everything around us contains thermal energy – or heat. Heat naturally flows from a warmer place to a colder place. To provide the heat energy in a home when outdoor temperatures are colder, we need heat to flow in the other direction – from a colder place to a warmer place. But how does it do it?

When the pressure of a gas increases, the temperature also increases. When the pressure decreases, the temperature decreases. This relationship between pressure and temperature is the key to how a heat pump works.

The gas is called a ‘refrigerant’ and a heat pump uses electricity to compress this refrigerant, increasing the pressure and therefore the temperature. As the refrigerant’s heat is transferred to your home through the heat exchanger, it cools down a little. The refrigerant is then allowed to expand so that it cools even further. It’s now cold enough to absorb more heat from outside and begin the process again.

The heat delivered to the heat exchanger can then be used to heat your home. This would normally be done using a central heating system – but it could also be done using warm air in either an air-to-air heat pump or an exhaust air heat pump.”

What about heat pumps in old houses or flats? Aren’t they harder to install?

Air source heat pumps can work in most houses. However in older homes, more work such as improved insulation, pipework or ductwork or any additional interior heating gear will improve the efficiency of a heat pump. It is true that they can be more difficult and expensive to install in older homes, particularly if homes don’t have a suitable heating system set up. However it does not make heat pumps unsuitable for older homes at all. Read more about this here.

Why is Greenpeace talking about cost so much here? Isn’t your role to talk about emissions only?

We are talking about cost in the context of a cost of living crisis which has left almost a quarter of the UK in fuel poverty with a direct correlation to failures in climate action. The cost of living has been caused [amongst other factors] by spiralling gas prices which began to rise in September 2021, made dramatically worse by the invasion of Ukraine. This has been felt particularly sharply in the UK due to the UK Government’s own failures to insulate people’s homes, decarbonise our heating systems, speed up the transition to renewable energy and gear up to grid. The Government’s failure to properly tax fossil fuel companies as a result of the investment loophole has left less money for climate action or sufficient support to those struggling to pay their bills. Therefore through this tool we are emphasising the fact that climate action is not only vital for reducing emissions and climate impacts which are already devastating countries in the global south in particular. Ramping up renewables and energy efficiency is vital to alleviate the cost of living crisis here in the UK with tangible impacts on normal people’s spending.

This feels really individualised, how is this supporting structural change as this is supposed to be Greenpeace’s main focus?

We have used a slightly different mechanism to our usual campaigning tools by helping (initially) individuals understand how much they would save on their bills every year in the context of a structural cost of living crisis, caused by global price shocks in part, but also by political decisions the UK Government have made by failing to increase investment in renewable energy, and to roll out a nationwide energy efficiency programme as quickly as possible. With the results we have made sure:

A) that people share their personal savings with the Treasury and their local MP to call for political change that could have huge, structural and collective impacts and B) that participants can see how their community/ constituency is impacted by poor energy efficiency standards in order to hold their local MP to account and make the same demands.

We are also using any data from the tool to get in touch with those who have used the tool to encourage them to get organised with Greenpeace locally, and to attend a mass lobby of MPs on the 1st of April 2023.

Are Greenpeace shaming people for their energy usage. Will this data be used as a campaigning tool to bring to the government or just to inform individuals?

This tool is not aimed at shaming people for their energy use, in fact it is a means of shaming the Government for having failed to significantly invest in insulation measures

See the above answer on why we’re asking specific questions to get to the outcome of how much people could save.

What about people in listed properties who can’t easily have their homes insulated – are they left behind?

Listed buildings can still be insulated. See this guide for more information on this matter.

Why aren’t you also campaigning for all new builds to have rooftop solar, heat pumps, high grade insulation etc?

We do support all these things in new-build and have campaigned against the appalling decision to scrap the zero carbon homes standard in 2015. There is currently a process of the Future Homes Standard which would much better insulate new homes and a gas boiler ban by 2025. Greenpeace also support new builds having rooftop solar as obligatory

How can you advocate for more synthetic products like rooftop insulation – are there natural alternatives we can use to keep our homes warm?

There are natural alternatives to synthetic insulation, such as using sheep wool. And semi-natural ones like mineral wool. Greenpeace supports using materials that avoid fire hazards, and those that are durable such as synthetics. The benefits of using synthetic insulation are that this can be applied in large quantities, which we urgently need to insulate all homes in the UK in order to keep homes warm and keep emissions down.

Do Greenpeace think we need to nationalise energy?

We do not currently have a demand to encourage the nationalisation of energy companies or energy.

Are there significant differences between bills in England, Scotland N. Ireland and Wales and will the calculator differ factoring in location?

Ofgem set the unit price across the UK- which applies to all customers. In addition, households will also be charged on their amount of usage. However there are regional differences, arguably largely due to insulation. Friends of the Earth have done some research on different regions in England and Wales on the basis of fuel poverty [stated above] as well as constituency and local authority data on % of insulation per area. This is due to the fact that some schemes such as the Home Upgrade grants are competitive, so local authorities have to apply to receive this.

Is this a devolved issue?

This is a devolved issue to an extent. In addition to UK wide energy efficiency schemes, grants etc the Scottish Government is responsible for allocating Scottish specific funding for EE measures, advice services and ensuring the delivery of Scottish specific EE programmes, read more info here. In Wales there are energy efficiency grants only available to landlords, and a small Warm Homes grant but most available options are ECO and ECO+ which covers the UK. In Northern Ireland this issue is also partially devolved. The Northern Irish Government is responsible for allocating NI specific funding for EE measures and delivering NI specific EE programmes such as the Boiler Replacement scheme- A DFC scheme, administered by the NI Housing Executive and the Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme. Across the UK, local authorities are responsible for delivering insulation programmes, however they are often lacking in funding, and many UK energy efficiency schemes such as Home Upgrade Grants are currently, unfairly competitive.  We are calling for more investment into national schemes such as the ECO and ECO + schemes for the whole of the UK, which the UK gov and Chancellor are responsible for allocating additional funds towards to ensure every home in the UK is energy efficient.

Does the calculator include the Energy Price Guarantee?

The calculator has included the initial changes in energy prices from the Energy Price Guarantee, but will not include changes to the Energy Price Guarantee beyond its implementation in the Autumn of 2022. We have decided not to use the calculator to measure quarterly changes in energy prices due to their fluctuating nature, it is commonly understood that energy bills may be reduced by July for example. To avoid predicating our results on these quarterly changes we have instead chosen to forecast 2030 prices, and measure annual changes based on solid insights that predict gas price remains constant between 2022 and 2030 and that electricity price starts decreasing between 2025 and 2030 due to higher deployment of renewable energy (informed by the CCC Sixth Carbon Budget Balanced Net Zero Pathway from the 6CB).

What about the FT calculator?

The FT launched a similar calculator here– measuring how much households could save with sufficient insulation. The FT’s calculator is looking at potential immediate savings from insulation, while our calculator is looking at the potential impact of publicly funded national insulation and heat pump installation programmes, over a decade. There are three main differing characteristics in our tool:

  1. We project how much households could save by 2030 with a heat pump and EPC C insulation
  2. We include the cost benefits of having a heat pump installed
  3. We also have an explicitly political angle to the tool.