Do the Tories 'get' climate change?

So, the top ten Tory bloggers are all climate sceptics. So what? Everyone knows the internet provides a space for people to loudly declare their views in strident tones, blissfully and wilfully unaware of what have been termed 'reality-based arguments' - in this case the consensus weight of informed scientific opinion.

But hang on. These aren't just random bloggers. This is the Tory grassroots. The top ten Tory blogs include people like Tim Montgomery, who founded influential tory website Conservative Home, Iain Dale, who sits at the heart of the Conservative grassroots, Tory MEP Daniel Hannan and Douglas Carswell MP, who defended one widely ridiculed book claiming to debunk climate change on the grounds that it, er, had a lot of footnotes. Hmmm.

This is a face of the Conservative party that stands in sharp contrast to the often strong words on green issues we've heard from David Cameron. For a while the Conservatives were leading the charge over the environment. Back in 2007 Cameron, surrounded by boats and climbing equipment, gave a speech in our warehouse to launch the Conservative policy on decentralised energy. What we heard from the Tories then was "vote blue go green." They pushed the green agenda in the face of Labour indifference and obstruction, and it seemed like they actually 'got' climate change.

But now, with political power within their grasp, a lot hangs on how Cameron deals with a grassroots that - online or offline - isn't too keen on green policies. On one hand there are some positive headline policies. Greg Clark, the shadow energy secretary, has talked about setting carbon budgets, partially limiting emissions from coal and even pushing for more renewable power, though he remains shy of committing to meet the UK's 2020 renewables target.

Meanwhile the shadow transport secretary has made canning the third runway at Heathrow a centrepiece of policy, and expressed opposition to new runways at Stansted and Gatwick, though is shy of talking about her intentions for the aviation sector as a whole. Cameron has personally stated his opposition to Heathrow and his support for a standard limiting emissions from new coal plants to no more than a modern gas plant.

All these things would obviously be really good steps forward if they are delivered, even if there might be a touch of devilry in the detail to clarify. But with a grassroots that is less receptive to environmental issues than the leadership might want, we know that any progressive policies the leadership might push for are going to see serious backlash from the wider Conservative constituency.

That could make it difficult for the Tories to sustain a green agenda, and it also means that we're going to have to continue to pore over the details of tory environment policies, such as their coal policy, checking them against the recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change as a minimum test, to make sure they match up to the headline claims. Again, it will all be about how Cameron handles it.

Strong leadership from him would make it easy to quell any fears about resistance from the wider party - but would require a bit of a change of gear.

On one hand the front bench team have been quick to defend their policies when they are called into doubt by their colleagues. Shadow business secretary Ken Clark was forced to immediately retract unguarded comments opposing onshore wind power, and the position on Heathrow has been restated firmly whenever it is questioned amongst the ranks. This gives some reassurance against what otherwise are worrying signs.

On the other hand, it is clear that the green agenda is not one fully embedded in all departments. Over conference season we saw an almost complete lack of attention to environmental issues. One small but telling example is George Osborne who as shadow chancellor is the potential controller of the Treasury and key to either driving or blocking a green Tory agenda. He didn't mention the environment or climate change once in his conference speech. David Cameron and Greg Clark have both since made green speeches, but this just shows that it's only away from their wider party membership that the green agenda gets prominence.

Times have changed, even in a couple of years. Back when David Cameron was speaking in our direct action warehouse, the political landscape was pretty different. Labour were intractable on new coal, and busy working through a series of terrible energy secretaries, each obsessed with pushing the dirtiest possible technologies. But as Labour starts getting to grips with the climate agenda, albeit with blots like the Heathrow decision staining their tattered copy book, there's now more political space for any party to be pushing ambitious plans to decarbonise our economy.

As an organization, we don't support one political party or another. We just want to see the strongest action on the environment possible that cuts our carbon emissions, looks out for those affected by climate change, and cleans up on the benefits of early action. So we'll have to wait and see how tension between the Tory leadership and grassroots on climate change pans out.

But we shouldn't wait too long. It's worth remembering, as Grist said a few days ago,

Public opinion on matters of science is of great interest for a great many reasons, but it is a poor guide for public policy.

No matter how much the Tory grassroots might not like climate change, it's happening. Scientists are telling us we've got about 5 years to get our carbon emissions on a downward track - and irrespective of what the rabble-rousers might think, that simple fact isn't going to change.