Scientists aboard our ship the MV Arctic Sunrise measure the thickness of the Arctic sea ice.
Today we're expecting an announcement from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre - the US body that monitors the Arctic - about the 'seasonal low' of Arctic sea ice for 2009.
Every year, the Arctic sea ice - the floating cap of frozen ocean that sits over the north of the planet - shrinks and grows with the seasons. In the Arctic summer it melts away and gets smaller, in winter it grows and get bigger. It being mid-September we've just passed the height of Arctic summer, and today the NSIDC will tell us how small the ice cap got this year.
Over the past 30 years, seasonal fluctuations haven't masked the serious changes in the sea ice since scientists started measuring it properly in 1979. Since then the ice cap has shrunk - not every year, but with a strong downward trend - because of an outside influence: The warming sea and air which cradles the floating ice cap.
The shrinking sea ice is a clear signal that climate change is happening faster than we though it would. In 2007, the IPCC suggested that we could see an Arctic ocean completely free of ice by the end of the century - 2100. Now, scientists are saying that this could happen by the 2030s.
In 2007 researchers who specialise in studying the Arctic were shocked at the particularly rapid rate of ice melt. 2007 saw the lowest ‘extent' or area of ice we have ever seen. This year, 2009, we expect the sea ice minimum to be the third lowest on record.
It could sound like things have improved over the past two years, but it's unfortunately not the case. The downward trend in ice levels is clear - but this year scientists have concluded that strong winds have helped spread the floating sea ice out further. Although its area may be bigger than 2007, it's thinly spread, which means it's now more vulnerable to future melting.
The Arctic ice cap disappearing is a bad thing, both for the animals that live on it, like polar bears and seals, and for the climate. At the moment it acts like a white hat on the top of the planet, reflecting a chunk of the sun's heat off into space. If the sea ice disappears, the planet will absorb energy more quickly, leading to even faster climate change.
One way of viewing the Arctic is as the early warning system for the planet. Changes in the average temperature of the planet impact twice as heavily on the Arctic, because of where it is on the planet, and because it is such a delicate and finely balanced climatic system. The disappearing sea ice is a clear signal, (if we didn't know it already), that we have to act speedily to cut out the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the planet to warm.
Our ship, the MV Arctic Sunrise, has been in the Arctic, with the crew bearing witness to the changes there and hosting independent scientists who have been monitoring what's going on. We'll update with comments from them after the announcement, expected at 4pm our time.
UPDATE:
The NSIDC have published their update, stating:
Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, the third-lowest extent since the start of satellite measurements in 1979. While this year’s minimum extent is above the record and near-record minimums of the last two years, it further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent observed over the past thirty years.
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