As Conservatives slam net zero at conference, data shows 68% of their seats contain properties facing subsidence risk 

While the shadow housing secretary Katie Lam claims to be able to save £50,000 from the cost of a new house by cutting “ideological net zero regulations”, more than two-thirds (68%) of Conservative constituencies in England have homes at risk of climate change driven subsidence, according to a new analysis by Greenpeace of insurance industry data. 

The data shows that 246 constituencies contain properties at some risk of subsidence between now and 2050 – 45% of all 543 constituencies in England. Of these, 76 are currently held by Conservative MPs, while Labour hold 118 seats, the Liberal Democrats hold 39, Reform hold 6 and the Greens hold none.

The data comes as the Conservatives gather for their annual party conference in Birmingham where they are calling for a bonfire of regulations that protect the environment and net zero targets. One of the main causes of subsidence is changes in the moisture level of the underlying soils, exacerbated by extremes of wet and dry weather that are getting worse because of a changing climate.

Lily-Rose Ellis, climate campaigner for Greenpeace UK, said:

“People’s homes are at risk of literally sinking into the ground along with any credibility the Conservatives once had on the environment. Their love affair with oil and gas will please Donald Trump and the fossil fuel industry, but will do nothing to help their constituents facing the risk of sinking homes, rising premiums and plummeting property values. Previous Conservative leaders understood that cutting carbon is essential to protecting what we love – from our countryside to our homes to our children’s futures. Kemi is all about playing climate politics – not conserving our future.”

The data also shows that 50% of the properties in Katie Lam’s Weald of Kent constituency, and 56% of the properties in Kemi Badenoch’s North West Essex seat, are at risk of subsidence by 2050. 

Kemi Badenoch is expected to use her keynote speech at the Conservative conference to undermine climate action and expand the burning of fossil fuels, despite the high energy bills and fuel prices paid by consumers as a result of foreign wars. Under her leadership, the Conservatives have pledged to scrap the 2050 net zero target and to maximise extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea under Trump’s slogan “drill, baby, drill”.

Subsidence is a particular risk in areas where homes are built on clay, which includes large areas of the South East where the Conservatives are strong. It also includes very significant numbers of homes in Labour-held seats in London – a key political battleground in the coming Mayoral and General elections. 

ENDS

Contact

Greenpeace UK Press Office – press.uk@greenpeace.org or 020 7865 8255

Notes

The figures come from Aviva’s Building Future Communities 2025 constituency statistics. They count properties at possible or probable risk of subsidence by the 2050s, based on British Geological Survey data under the UKCP09 medium emissions projection. Party holdings are taken from the Parliament API as of 23 September 2026. Data on subsidence was not available for Wales and Scotland. Data is available on request.

The 68% figure is a Greenpeace calculation based on the data and the numbers of seats held by each party. A constituency is counted as being at risk if it contains any property in a subsidence risk area. These are area-based projections, not predictions that individual properties will suffer subsidence; the level of risk to individual properties varies widely within constituencies. 

Of the seats where more than half of properties are at risk, 27 are held by the Conservatives and 78 are held by Labour – most of them in London. Outside the capital the two parties hold 22 such seats each.