COP29: Greenpeace briefing

COP29 takes place from Monday 11th to Friday 22nd of November in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

What to watch out for at COP29

A new climate finance package, plans to make polluters pay

Finance is a cornerstone of global cooperation on climate change, and at the heart of the grand bargain underpinning the Paris Agreement. Developed countries previously committed to jointly mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020, but delays in reaching this commitment eroded a lot of trust, particularly from developing countries.

This year the priority is to finalise a new global finance goal, called the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Achieving agreement on this is critical for unlocking essential funds needed by developing countries from 2025 onwards. Climate Action Network has said this should be at least $1 trillion in public, grant-based and highly concessional finance each year. Developed countries have an obligation under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement to provide financial support for developing countries. Developing countries and global civil society therefore expect that developed countries must contribute to the new goal without attaching any conditions about others needing to contribute. 

As well as the headline public finance goal, watch out for thematic subgoals for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. This is critical to address the historic neglect of public finance support for adaptation and loss and damage. In the context of growing debt in many developing countries, commitment to grants and highly concessional public finance is also essential. 

Developed countries have sometimes tried to evade their finance obligations citing a shortage of public money. This year, there is growing emphasis on the importance of making big polluters, such as the fossil fuel industry, pay their fair share. Fossil fuels are responsible for 85% of global carbon emissions – but the industry continues to make huge profits. Shell made £4.6 billion over the last three months alone, and Exxon made $8.6 billion. Meanwhile, storms, floods and hurricanes supercharged by burning fossil fuels are costing lives and billions of dollars in damage. Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Malawi caused $507 million in loss and damage in 2023. 

Taxing polluting companies more to support climate-impacted communities at home and abroad is an idea that has received support via the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force led by France, Kenya and Barbados, the UN Secretary General, and the EU Council. As just one example, a Climate Damages Tax on the extraction of fossil fuels, if introduced by OECD countries alone, at a low rate of $5 per tonne of CO2e increasing by $5 per tonne each year, could generate $900 billion by 2030. COP29 presents a crucial opportunity to harness this momentum and cement an agreement that will push countries further to introduce new fossil fuel polluter taxes back home, with developed countries leading the way. 

Fossil fuel phase-out

The Global Stocktake last year acknowledged that global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by around 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 from 2019 levels, aiming for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. We are severely off track from this trajectory and political leaders need to respond at COP29 and signal they will get to work in cutting emissions.

A big breakthrough in the COP28 negotiations in Dubai last year was the inclusion – for the first time – of language on “transitioning away from fossil fuels” and expanding renewable energy capacity. Ending the age of coal, oil and gas will require governments to adopt new 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that are 1.5°C-aligned and plans for phasing out fossil fuel production and consumption, alongside supporting a just transition for workers. 

The 2035 NDCs must be submitted by February 2025 and will be evaluated one month before COP30 in Brazil in the UNFCCC’s NDC synthesis report. COP29 is an important milestone on that road, and we expect some nations (including the UK) to reveal their NDCs in the next two weeks.

Trump and the Paris Agreement

The recent result of the US election inevitably casts a shadow over this COP, particularly given Donald Trump’s campaign was fuelled by climate misinformation and multimillion-dollar donations from Big Oil and other corporate interests. Trump has previously taken the US out of the Paris Agreement, and may do so again. His re-election is a gift to the big polluters seeking to derail climate action at COP29, but the world cannot afford further delays. From the devastation in Valencia to the typhoon-battered towns of the Philippines, the disasters of recent weeks are a stark warning of the costs of failure.

As the US inevitably steps back in these talks, Greenpeace is calling for others to step up. With many G7 leaders wavering on even attending COP, Keir Starmer has a chance to lead the way in Baku. He should stand firm and deliver on his election mandate through joining the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, increasing grant-based public finance for developing countries, and championing polluter taxes to support communities at home and abroad facing escalating climate impacts.

Article 6

Article 6 is up for discussion again. This contentious section of the Paris Agreement has been in the negotiations spotlight for all the wrong reasons for almost a decade. Greenpeace interprets Article 6 as promoting cooperation between countries to slash emissions, but most countries and industries say Article 6 should create a global market in carbon offsets, which Greenpeace sees as a dangerous scam that risks delaying real action.

Articles 6.2 and 6.4 have been negotiated by governments to develop a credit trading and carbon market architecture. In Baku, it is crucial that governments find the highest quality agreement on what constitutes transparency and integrity in Article 6.2, especially since countries are already trading credits under Article 6.2 without full rules in place.  

Political leaders cannot get distracted by industry-driven plans to open a global market in carbon offsets, which is bad for both climate and biodiversity. The significant progress needed at COP29 is to protect and restore high integrity carbon-dense ecosystems. 

What does Greenpeace want to see from COP29?

1. A new climate finance goal, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), that commits to significantly scaled-up public finance to developing countries for action on adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage. It must also embed the Make Polluters Pay principle by calling for domestic taxes to be introduced on the fossil fuel industry and other big polluters, with developed countries leading the way.
2. Implementation of the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, by outlining how countries’ upcoming 2030 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will include fossil fuel phase-out plans and policies to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030, in alignment with 1.5°C.
3. Preventing a poor outcome on offsets and carbon markets – both in terms of avoiding false expectations around the ability of carbon markets to generate climate finance, and preventing loopholes for trading credits. There should instead be an emphasis on community-led non-market solutions. This is vital to protect and restore high integrity carbon-dense ecosystems.

What about the UK Government?

It was encouraging to hear the Foreign Secretary David Lammy promise that the “climate and nature crisis will be central to all that the Foreign Office does” and to see the appointment of two excellent UK Special Representatives for Climate Change and Nature. We also welcome Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirming he will be attending COP29 and call on him to use his presence to signal that the UK is back as a leader on the world stage – especially in the context of the recent US election result. 

The UK is widely expected to announce its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) at this COP. The Climate Change Committee has recommended an 81% cut in carbon emissions by 2035, but we believe the government should aim higher to show true global leadership and take full responsibility for the UK’s historic role as a major carbon polluter. The Labour government’s manifesto promises to end new oil and gas licences, deliver zero carbon power by 2030 and insulate homes are all consistent with implementing the Global Stocktake agreement of COP28. The UK Government should therefore confirm that all these policies will be included in the UK’s NDC action plan that will accompany the headline target next year.

To help encourage global momentum towards a fossil fuel phase-out, the UK should use its bold policy to end new oil and gas licences as the basis for joining the international Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance. It should also make a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuel production entirely by the early 2030s, and to deliver the necessary funding and resources required for a just transition for workers.

In the context of severely eroded trust from developing countries, it will be vital for the UK to support an ambitious deal on climate finance in the negotiations this year. Furthermore, the government should explicitly confirm the UK’s commitment to significantly increase its own contribution to grant-based public finance to developing countries in the future, in addition to existing Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitments. This is a particularly important signal to send after the recent Budget failed to reverse cuts to ODA, and the effective real-terms cut (£1.6bn) to existing international climate finance payments due to accounting changes.  

We welcome the recent increase in the Energy Profits Levy on North Sea oil and gas companies to 38%, and the removal of the 29% investment allowance. But there are still loopholes that will continue to incentivise more drilling. Governments around the world including the UK should be doing much more to tax the oil and gas industry in general. The UK should support a COP29 outcome that commits countries to tax polluting companies, including the fossil fuel industry, to support climate action at home and abroad. Alongside this, the Government should commit to commission an independent review into UK polluter tax options to raise more public funds, with a view to introducing additional mechanisms before the end of 2025.

Spokespeople in Baku

• Rebecca Newsom, Senior Political Advisor, Greenpeace UK (UK at COP)
• Jasper Inventor, Deputy International Programme Director, Greenpeace International
• Yeb Sano, Executive Director, Greenpeace Southeast Asia (former Philippines COP negotiator, Loss & Damage)
• Carolina Pasquali, Executive Director, Greenpeace Brazil (COP30 in Brazil)
• Tracy Carty, Global Climate Politics Expert, Greenpeace International (climate finance)
• Yao Zhe, Global Policy Advisor, Greenpeace China (China)
• Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific, Greenpeace Australia Pacific (Australia, Pacific, lived experience of climate impacts on low-lying islands)
• An Lambrechts, Biodiversity Politics Expert, Greenpeace International (biodiversity)

Key dates

• TBC – Reaction to UK announcing its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
• 11 November – COP29 opens – Opening press release on Greenpeace expectations
• 12-13 November – World Leaders Climate Action Summit – Greenpeace press conference and reactions to UK and other speeches  
• 13 November – Press conference focused on biodiversity / Article 6
• 15 November – Press release assessing progress at halfway point
• 18 November – Press conference / Report on how a Climate Damages Tax could contribute towards climate impacts at home and abroad
• 19 November – Reaction to G20 outcome
• 20 November – Greenpeace press conference 
• 22 November (or later) – COP29 finishes – Reaction to final communique / press conference / spokespeople available

Greenpeace press contacts