Number of homes at high risk of flooding set to treble in next 50 years – Greenpeace

As flood warnings and alerts remain in place across large swathes of Great Britain, Greenpeace warns that over 866,000 homes – equivalent to the total of those in Birmingham, Liverpool and Sheffield – could be at ‘high’ or ‘very high’ risk from increased levels of severe flooding fuelled by climate change by the year 2080.

Analysis by Geosmart – a company specialising in flood risk assessments – commissioned by Greenpeace, compares the level of flood risk faced by every region and local authority across Britain, should global temperatures increase by 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels. 

A 2.4°C increase by 2080 aligns with the mid-range projection by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which estimates that global temperatures could reach 2.7°C by 2100, based on current levels of emissions. 

At this level of warming, 866,000 homes will face a ‘high’ or ‘very high’ risk of flooding from rivers, the sea, rainfall and groundwater.  This is three and a half times higher than the 253,000 homes facing the same level of risk in 2020, according to the latest available data.

In a 2.4°C world,  over 40% of homes in the South East and East of England, East Midlands and Scotland will be at some risk of flooding. 

Commenting on the analysis, Philip Evans, Greenpeace UK’s senior climate campaigner, said: 

“The economic cost of the storms and floods battering Britain are sky-rocketing. Our data clearly shows more and more homes will face rising flood risk due to extreme weather events. Already, homes in some areas are becoming uninsurable, and in certain cases, insurers are abandoning towns, leaving councils to pick up the tab.”

“Britain is taking a soaking while oil giants like Shell are raking in billions. Taxpayers shouldn’t be paying for Big Oil’s greed. It’s time they were made to foot the bill for the climate breakdown fuelled by their dirty industry. ” 

For more information, contact the Greenpeace UK Press Office – press.uk@greenpeace.org or 020 7865 8255

Notes to editors:

GeoSmart doesn’t just look at whether a house might get flooded, they also calculate the Average Annual Loss. This is a way of predicting how much, on average, a homeowner might have to spend on flood repairs every year over a long period of time. This takes into account both the predicted frequency of flooding events, and the depth of the water. Assuming it costs, on average, £300,000 to rebuild a house from scratch, a resident in a ‘high’ risk area could expect a repair bill over £750 each year, while someone in a ‘very high’ risk area could expect to spend over £1,500 each year on repairs. In reality, these costs would be occasional and could be much higher in a given year.

Regional breakdown of homes at risk of flooding by 2080 based on Geosmart analysis, based on a 2.4°C Global temperature increase.