Concerns over climate and nature are higher than the national average in the Blue Wall and scores of marginal seats, a major new survey of 20,000 people shows.
This leaves the Conservatives in danger of losing seats in key battlegrounds if the party fails to strengthen its climate commitments and continues to row back on policies needed to tackle the crisis, according to Greenpeace UK.
The detailed, constituency level polling of people across Great Britain by Survation, which factors in the new boundaries for the next General Election, shows strong support for climate and environmental policies.
Key findings
- Of those who had an opinion, more than two thirds (70%) stated that climate and environment policies are important and will influence how they vote in the next election.
- Respondents in the Blue Wall showed overwhelming support for almost all specific climate policies.
- Almost three in four constituents in the Blue Wall and the most marginal seats (72% and 71%, respectively) stated that those policies will influence how they vote.
- In the Blue Wall and marginal battlegrounds, more than four in five (85% in the Blue Wall, 86% in the most marginal seats) of constituents who had an opinion want the government to provide more financial support to insulate homes and almost four in five (73% for both) want more government funding for heat pumps.
- They also want to see more government investment for renewable power (88% and 87%) and subsidised rail travel to ensure it is always cheaper than driving (79% for both).
- Four in five (80%) residents in the Blue Wall support the idea of a wealth tax on the richest 1% of people to fund action on climate change, and almost nine in 10 (87%) want to see a loophole-free windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies.
- Support for these taxes gets even more support in marginal constituencies where 82% of those who had an opinion want to see a wealth tax and 88% support a loop-hole free windfall tax on oil and gas giants.
- In the 12 constituencies identified as potential bellwether or indicative seats by Greenpeace’s political analysts – which include Stevenage, Chingford and Woodford Green and East Thanet – overall support for almost all climate and nature policies, as well as climate concern and demand for more political action on climate and the environment, was even higher than in the Blue Wall and key marginal constituencies.
Methodology
Survation conducted this nationally representative survey of 20,205 adults living in Great Britain on behalf of Greenpeace UK on a range of climate-related issues and policies, between 18th August – 1st of September 2023.
The data was analysed using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) modelling to estimate the percentage of respondents providing an answer to a given question in 632 GB Parliamentary Constituencies.
The 632 constituencies represent newly formed constituencies for the 2024 General Election as proposed by the independent boundary commissions for each nation.
