“We have just emerged from our hottest summer on record. Punishing heatwaves left nurses collapsing on hospital wards and bus drivers working in 40C cabs. Wildfires destroyed homes, leaving families with nothing. And more extreme weather is forecast in the months ahead. The climate crisis is not a distant threat. It is here and with us now.”
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, The Guardian, 17th September 2026.
The Prime Minister’s commitment to attend COP31 is a welcome recognition of the urgency of the climate crisis. This summer saw a major uptick in voter concern with a 10% increase in the number of people ranking the environment as one of the three most important issues. COP31 is an opportunity to make climate the UK’s major diplomatic priority, to stand up on the world stage and announce transformative commitments to drive forward the global fossil fuel phaseout.
This briefing sets out three key priorities for the UK government:
- Develop an ambitious national roadmap for a just transition away from fossil fuels, and play a leading role in developing a global just transition roadmap;
- Champion and agree to a global target of 35% electrification of final energy demand by 2035, of which at least 75% is met by renewable power generation as part of a just transition away from fossil fuels.
- Scale up climate finance with more grant-based public finance for Global South countries, funded by ending subsidies, increasing profit taxes on fossil fuel corporations and other wealthy polluters, nationally and globally (including under the Global Tax Treaty), and backing the Climate Finance Work Programme on the COP31 agenda
Strong words on the global stage will ring hollow for other countries if the UK does not stand firm on domestic climate policy. COP31 arrives in the wake of government approval of the Jackdaw gas field, and with decisions that are critical to fulfilment of our climate obligations pending. For the UK to have credibility it needs to firmly reject Rosebank; increase rather than cut the Warm Homes Plan; maintain the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate; reject the Heathrow third runway; invest in a just transition and introduce bold measures to tax polluters and increase climate finance.
The Prime Minister should use the platform of COP31 to announce the rejection of Rosebank on climate grounds. This would be a tangible signal of ambition that would show the rest of the world that the UK is serious about climate action and ready to lead from the front, particularly after the approval of Jackdaw.
Background to COP31: the global picture
“For decades, Big Oil has treated the atmosphere as an open sewer – and cashed in on the consequences. Since [the Russian Federation’s] invasion of Ukraine, five major Western oil companies have pocketed nearly half a trillion dollars in profits. Compare that with just $34 billion in international public adaptation finance for developing countries in the latest year reported. Meanwhile, everyday people are paying more for energy, food and insurance. We have seen this kind of abuse of power before. When the harms of Big Tobacco became undeniable – Governments acted. The climate crisis demands the same determination.”
UN Secretary General Guterres, statement to UN General Assembly, 22nd September 2026.
Developments in 2026 leave no doubt about the urgent need to cut emissions and stabilise a rapidly changing climate. Climate change, compounded by an intensifying El Niño, has brought unprecedented heat extremes worldwide. August 2026 is tied as the warmest month in recorded history, averaging 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. Temperatures exceeded 50°C in Australia in January, tens of thousands of excess deaths were estimated following a summer of historic heat in Europe, and India experienced some of the highest temperatures on modern record. In August, extreme temperatures helped trigger the sudden glacial collapse of Langtang Lirung, causing horrific loss of life and widespread destruction in Nepal and Tibet.
In August, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issued a heartbreaking declaration: that the world has passed the threshold of climate stability and is heading beyond 1.5°C with far worse climate extremes to come. This must not become a declaration of defeat. It must spark an immediate response by political leaders to ensure overshoot is as low as possible and ensure that the countries and communities most vulnerable and least responsible receive the public finance support they are owed. Higher and longer overshoot increases adaptation needs, ecosystem damage, and the likelihood of irreversible loss and damage.
A path back to 1.5°C is achievable and necessary. And with it comes the promise of a renewable energy system that strengthens security and sovereignty, increases affordable energy access and supports development. But getting there demands concerted action: above all to accelerate the just transition away from fossil fuels, the single biggest driver of the climate crisis and to scale public finance from developed to developing countries for climate action and nature protection, funded in a large part through progressive polluter taxation.
Key priorities
Roadmap for a just transition away from fossil fuels
COP31 must operationalise and accelerate the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable way, building on the momentum from COP30, the Santa Marta conference and the Brazil Presidency roadmap initiative.
All governments need to develop their own national roadmaps as part of a comprehensive transition plan, aligned with each country’s fair share of the global action required to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. This is even more important after successive fossil fuel price shocks have left people worldwide paying higher bills while fossil fuel giants collect even bigger profits. As a developed country, the UK should introduce an ambitious domestic roadmap at COP31, and support efforts to develop a global roadmap. The UK would join countries such as France, Germany and the Netherlands who have already produced domestic roadmaps.
The UK Roadmap should:
- Cement the UK’s world leading commitment to no new fossil fuel expansion, set out a transition plan for the North Sea which includes the phasing down of fossil fuel extraction and increase of offshore wind, coordination of decommissioning and support for communities and workers who have been dependent on fossil fuel industries, and a clear timeline to decarbonise the power system by 2030;
- Maintain the phaseout of new petrol and diesel cars & vans by 2030, legislate for an end to diesel HGVs in the 2030s, and build capacity for heating through heat pumps in the buildings sector to hit the targets outlined by Climate Change Committee. Allied to this, deliver a sufficiently-funded Warm Homes Plan that uses technologies and insulation to reduce & eliminate fuel poverty, and makes those homes fit for hotter summers;
- Set out targets to achieve 35% electrification of final energy demand by 2035.
- Wind down and avoid further funding to projects that have detrimental knock on impacts or are not good value for money. This includes: an end to Drax (and other biomass plant) subsidies post 2031, cessation of the Sizewell C project, halting support for CCS that perpetuates the use of fossil fuels, no support for biofuels that are not derived from genuine wastes, either in the Sustainable Aviation mandate or the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation;
- Aim to reduce fertilisers on agricultural land by 80% by 2040;
- Create a just transition fund for those workers affected by the shift away from fossil fuels including offshore oil & gas workers, as well as ringfenced funding for retraining in connected roles, e.g. gas heating tradespeople, combustion engine vehicle mechanics.
Electrification
A critical part of the transition away from fossil fuels is electrification and momentum is growing behind a “35 by 35” electrification goal at COP31 – meaning 35% of global energy consumption comes from electricity by 2035, an increase from today’s 20% figure. This is both welcome and necessary – a well-designed electrification goal is a key part of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. It will also expand affordable energy access, strengthen energy security and sovereignty, reduce exposure to “fossilflation” cost of living impacts, while supporting economic development by powering industry, transport and essential public services.
The UK should support a COP31 outcome that sets out an electrification target with the following conditions:
- It must also drive renewable-based electrification that displaces fossil fuels. COP31 should agree that at least 75% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources.
- The electrification target must serve as a floor, not a ceiling.
- The UK and other rich countries should provide finance, technology and other means of implementation that are essential for Global South countries to invest in renewables, grids, storage and energy efficiency.
Switching from fossil fuels to electricity across all sectors of our economy from heat to transport to power, will bring huge benefits to the UK. Electrification reduces our reliance on volatile fossil fuels, delivers energy security, price stabilisation, and progress towards the UK’s decarbonisation legal targets. The government will need to set out how the UK will achieve 35% of electrification of final energy demand by 2035, including by:
- Strengthening rather than cutting the Warm Homes Plan that is crucial to home retrofits, heat pump rollout, and energy efficiency upgrades, to support hundreds of thousands of low-income households exposed to volatile international gas markets and trapped in cold, damp housing.
- Electrifying road transport by increasing uptake of Electric Vehicles (EVs). That includes maintaining commitment to the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate and using tax policy to support ZEV targets – including through ending pay-per-mile road taxes on EVs.
- Reduce expenses for offshore wind generators by limiting the fees that the Crown Estate, who own the seabed, can charge offshore wind developers
- Lowering electricity costs by removing gas plants from the wholesale market and transferring them into a regulated asset base, which would prevent gas from setting the price of electricity.
Climate finance
“Nearly three years ago, standing in the shadow of our Mount Everest, the Secretary-General of the United Nations warned humanity about the madness of an impending climate disaster. That cry from the rooftop of the world was not heard loudly enough. We in Nepal heard it. Our communities heard it. Scientists around the world heard it. They repeated it with evidence. But we, the political leaders of the world, have been negligent to translate those warnings into action at the speed and scale that vulnerable people require. Last month, we saw the tragic consequences.”
Nepal’s Prime Minister, Balendra Shah, statement to the UN General Assembly, 24th September 2026.
COP31 needs to urgently address the finance gap with developed countries scaling up climate finance – especially grants and concessional finance – progressing towards the US$300 billion per year goal, increasing it to reflect actual needs, and also scaling up towards US$1.3 trillion investment goal. Currently, international climate finance is only meeting a fraction of what is needed for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage needs, with the latter two particularly sidelined. The continued failure of developed countries to provide adequate climate finance obstructs the wider political dynamics concerning emissions reductions, and erodes the trust and political capital which brought the Paris Agreement into being and seeks to operationalise its provisions.
At COP29 countries agreed on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance and its specific targets to reach at least US$300 billion a year in climate finance by 2035, with a target of scaling this up to $1.3 trillion per year from all sources. Separately, at COP30 in Belém, countries agreed to triple adaptation finance, from the $40 billion per year goal set at COP26 in Glasgow, to a $120 billion per year target. Even though this target is insufficient most developed countries have not yet announced any plans or commitments to make progress towards these goals, and those that have fall far short of what is required.
Fossil fuel profits have skyrocketed as a direct result of higher bills and worsening climate catastrophe for ordinary people. In this context, and with shrinking budgets and the need for fiscal policy to align with emissions reductions and the UK’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, making use of polluter pays measures is vital.
The UK needs to substantially increase its provision of high-quality grant-based public money for international climate finance including through taxing polluting industries, multi-national corporations and high net-worth individuals. Its approach so far has been heavily criticised by the International Development Committee, on the grounds of both scale and transparency. The UK’s latest round of International Climate Finance, ICF 4, will provide ‘around £6 billion’ over the course of 2026-29, a real terms drop of over 50% from ICF3 once inflation and various creative accounting practices are incorporated.
The UK has a significant role to play in leading by example, and encouraging other rich nations to do the same. Many countries and multinational corporations have profited greatly from practices which have contributed significantly to climate change – a country like the UK that is steadfastly committed to justice and fairness should ensure that climate debt is repaid. This is crucial for unlocking ambition and rebuilding trust with Global South countries.
The UK should use COP31 to:
- Announce ambitious multi-year post-2025 climate finance commitments that reflect our fair share in delivering the US$300 billion goal: prioritising new and additional grant-based finance; clarifying the UK’s contribution to tripling adaptation finance by 2035; and providing substantial contributions to multilateral climate funds, including the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.
- Support the adoption of The Climate Finance Work Programme as a COP31 agenda item, and support a permanent agenda item on loss and damage with a clear plan for progressive environmental taxation as part of the resource mobilisation strategy for the fund for responding to loss and damage.
- Commit to substantial new and additional grant-based funding for loss and damage
- Endorse the UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation – or Global Tax Treaty – as a mechanism for tackling corporate tax abuse, redistributing tax rights and transferring the costs of the climate crisis onto the polluters driving it.
- Concrete steps to raise public finance from polluter pays measures targeting fossil fuel companies
- Publish a fossil fuel subsidy phaseout plan in line with the UK’s commitments under the Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives and Subsidies (COFFIS)
Please contact Rudy.schulkind@greenpeace.org if you require further information.