A new force has entered British politics, and it’s not Reform. This was the first major electoral test of a new politics growing fast and surging in popularity. In a by-election that pollsters said was too close to call, Reform’s promises of climate destruction were soundly defeated, and it was a politician promising action on economic justice, climate and nature who won a resounding majority of over 4,000 votes and a 40% share of all ballots cast.
So what are the three key lessons we can take from this historic result?
1- Labour’s great threat from the left
This result confirms what many surveys and pollsters have already indicated: that the real threat for Labour comes from the Green left. Labour risks losing more votes to the Greens than to Reform. Trying to out-Reform Reform isn’t working for the Labour Party.
It’s notable that the vote of Labour and Greens combined was about 2.5 times that of Reform and the Conservatives. While local circumstances will always play their part, this result could suggest that Reform faces a ‘ceiling’ in public support, and their anti-renewables, pro-Trump, climate denialist position may be part of that problem.
Instead of alienating voters with hardline stances on immigration or by positioning nature as a threat to economic growth, it might be time for Ministers to up their game on nature and climate. These aren’t issues that can be sidelined to single departments: climate action and nature restoration must be at the heart of the government’s mission. Recently, intelligence chiefs warned that climate and biodiversity collapse posed a major national security threat and should be prioritised across government. And as the Channel 4 series Dirty Business reminded us this week, we absolutely need a government that puts public health and nature protection before corporate profits.
The government needs to come forward with the bold solutions people are looking for – to protect and restore biodiversity, cut emissions and bills, and make polluters pay for the climate destruction we see all around us. Otherwise, it risks taking more hits at the ballot box in previously safe seats.
2 – Billionaire, big polluter donations can’t buy electoral success
Reform poses as the party of ordinary people while they’re funded by billionaires, big polluters, climate deniers and tax dodgers. 75% of Reform’s donations have come from just three rich men – including the largest ever donation in British political history from a billionaire who made his money from fossil fuels. It’s no wonder Nigel Farage is so determined to trash the climate action that is powering growth, jobs and emissions reductions, and endangering his donors’ profits.
Voters in Manchester rejected corporate greed and instead backed calls to strip out the dirty money and divisive rhetoric polluting our politics. The winning candidate was a local plumber.
3 – A new kind of politics is emerging
This result shows people are hungry for a new kind of politics. Support for the two parties that have dominated Westminster for over a century is crumbling. In this contest Labour finished third in a seat they have held for a century, while the Conservatives received so few votes that they lost their deposit. Voters are clearly looking for leaders who offer bolder solutions to the big challenges we face on the cost of living, climate and nature.
But that doesn’t mean the big parties can’t adapt. All politicians need to learn lessons from this seismic result, a cry for hope cutting through the noise and driving a fundamental political shift.
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